Seoul district mayor races too close to call as parties battle for control

The outcome of Seoul's 25 district mayor races stands out as one of the most closely watched contests in the June 3 local elections.

District mayor elections are widely seen as highly susceptible to broader political winds. Analysts say the Democratic Party of Korea holds an advantage this cycle, buoyed by strong party approval ratings and a campaign message centered on holding the previous administration accountable for its declaration of martial law. The two most recent local elections both produced dramatic lopsided results. In 2018, the Democratic Party swept 24 of the 25 districts, losing only Seocho-gu, as President Moon Jae-in's approval ratings hovered between 70 and 80 percent amid a mood of inter-Korean reconciliation. In 2022, the People Power Party captured 17 districts in a vote held just 22 days after Yoon Suk Yeol's presidential election victory. Voters frustrated with the Moon administration's real estate policies swung sharply toward the PPP, aided by calls to give the incoming government a stable mandate.

The Democratic Party is targeting wins in 19 to 20 of the 25 Seoul districts. Beyond the eight districts where it already holds the mayoralty, the party is pushing to expand into Dongdaemun and Dobong, as well as parts of the Han River belt and Gangnam. Candidates are campaigning on calls for political stability under the Lee Jae Myung administration — which took office roughly a year before this election — and pledges to accelerate reconstruction and redevelopment projects.

A senior official from the Democratic Party's Seoul mayoral campaign said the party has put forward what it calls a "steady development" platform to promote reconstruction and redevelopment, adding that residents themselves appear to believe stable redevelopment requires the legislative and administrative backing that only the Democratic Party can provide.

Another official from the same campaign said that while the three Gangnam districts have traditionally been very difficult terrain for the party, strong performances along the Han River belt could produce meaningful results even in Gangnam. The official also said former President Lee Myung-bak's public endorsement of PPP candidate Oh Se-hoon would likely backfire among moderate voters in Seoul.

The People Power Party, for its part, is building its defense around the fact that it holds more incumbent district mayors than the Democratic Party. Some within the PPP say they expect to secure at least seven seats — anchored by the three Gangnam districts along with Yongsan, Gangdong, Yangcheon and Jung-gu — and hope to expand from there.

The party's strategy focuses on districts sensitive to property values, such as those along the Han River belt, where it plans to leverage incumbency, calls for real estate deregulation, and redevelopment and reconstruction issues to blunt the Democratic Party's momentum.

A senior official from the PPP's Seoul mayoral campaign said incumbent district mayors have been well received by their constituents. Another official said that with urban renewal emerging as a central issue, districts with sitting PPP mayors remain competitive. The party also believes it has a chance in Gangbuk-gu, where its candidate was replaced late in the race. The Democratic Party had earlier pulled the nomination of attorney Lee Seung-hoon, who had defended a sex offender, and on May 14 substituted Jeong Chang-su, director of the Narasallim Research Institute, as its replacement candidate. A separate PPP official said the party expects to win at least seven or eight seats, and as many as 11 or 12 if closely contested districts break its way.