South Korea has 70% chance of reaching World Cup round of 32, Opta projects

Football statistics outlet Opta has released its title contender predictions for the 2026 North America World Cup, giving South Korea a 70.35 percent chance of advancing to the round of 32 — lower than fellow Asian side Japan at 76.16 percent.

Opta published the results Monday after running 10,000 simulations across all 48 participating nations using a supercomputer. South Korea's projected probability of reaching the round of 16 stands at 33.52 percent, the quarterfinals at 12.74 percent, the semifinals at 4.02 percent, the final at 1.30 percent and winning the tournament at 0.36 percent.

Within Group A, Mexico leads the round-of-32 odds at 87.61 percent. The Czech Republic, also in the group, trails South Korea with a 63.38 percent probability. South Korea's chances of finishing first in the group stand at 22.69 percent — behind Mexico but ahead of the Czech Republic and South Africa.

Japan, placed in Group F, received the highest round-of-32 probability among Asian nations at 76.16 percent. Its round-of-16 odds of 33.47 percent are nearly identical to South Korea's 33.52 percent.

Opta's top title favorite is Spain at 16.1 percent, followed by France (13.0 percent), England (11.2 percent), Argentina (10.4 percent), Portugal (7.0 percent), Brazil (6.6 percent), Germany (5.1 percent), the Netherlands (3.6 percent), Norway (3.5 percent) and Belgium (2.4 percent).

South Korea, coached by Hong Myung-bo, will play a friendly against El Salvador on Thursday.

In Group A, South Korea face the Czech Republic on June 12, Mexico on June 19 and South Africa on June 25. The top two teams from each group, along with the eight best third-place finishers across all 12 groups, advance to the round of 32.

The tournament marks the first time the World Cup has expanded to a 48-nation format, giving third-place finishers in each group a path to the round of 32.

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