Hyundai Motor shares surge 144% this year, with analysts eyeing Toyota's market cap

With expectations for robotics stocks rising ahead of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's visit to South Korea, analysts are raising the prospect that Hyundai Motor's market capitalization could surpass that of Toyota, the world's top automaker by sales.

Hyundai Motor's share price has surged 144.22% so far this year through Tuesday, according to Korea Exchange data released Thursday — the steepest gain among major automakers. Over the same period, Toyota fell 15.24% while General Motors managed only a 0.90% gain.

The gap in market capitalization remains wide. Based on Tuesday's closing prices, Hyundai Motor's market cap stood at roughly 149 trillion won ($98.3 billion), just one-third of Toyota's 45 trillion yen ($281 billion, or about 431 trillion won).

Analysts believe the gap will narrow quickly as the auto industry is reshaped by the physical AI era. "Despite securing competitiveness in its core automotive business and in future humanoid robots, Hyundai Motor Group's market cap of just 201 trillion won will, over the medium to long term, set its sights squarely on Toyota's 441 trillion won," said Kang Sung-jin, an analyst at KB Securities.

Toyota's recent struggles underpin that outlook. The Japanese automaker reported a 49% year-on-year drop in operating profit for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, missing market estimates by 30%. Its operating profit guidance for next year calls for a 20% decline to 3 trillion yen.

Analysts interpret this as a sign of structural change in the auto industry — evidence that even Toyota, the world's top-selling automaker, has hit the limits of a hybrid-centered strategy in the face of a broader industry paradigm shift.

"Toyota's deteriorating earnings have led the market to view Hyundai Motor as the only automaker capable of competing with Tesla in the physical AI era," said Im Eun-young, an analyst at Samsung Securities. She described Hyundai Motor Group as a kind of "physical AI ETF," saying the conglomerate houses leading physical AI companies across multiple sectors.

Analysts argue that Hyundai Motor should no longer be evaluated by the standards of a traditional automaker, as the factors driving future corporate value are shifting from vehicle sales volume to AI and robotics competitiveness.

"In effect, no traditional automaker is actively responding to physical AI right now," said Park Gwang-rae, an analyst at Shinhan Investment. "While Tesla and leading Chinese players dominate the market, Hyundai Motor Group is the only one continuing to invest in the space."

He added that South Korea holds an edge over China in AI infrastructure, and that Hyundai Motor could see its valuation re-rated to the level of Chinese software-defined vehicle companies.

Hyundai Motor's physical AI momentum is expected to carry into the second half of the year. The company plans to launch a pilot program deploying humanoid robots on production lines through its Robot Meta Plant Application Center (RMAC), which is scheduled to begin operation in the third quarter.

The RMAC will serve as a testbed linking humanoid robot training, real-world process validation, data collection and retraining. It will also bring together Hyundai Motor's manufacturing capabilities, Boston Dynamics' robotics technology, and AI expertise from Nvidia and Google DeepMind.

"This marks the beginning of preparations for the mass production of humanoid robots and their full-scale deployment on assembly lines," said Lee Jae-il, an analyst at Eugene Investment & Securities. "We look forward to seeing the results of combining Hyundai Motor's manufacturing capabilities, Boston Dynamics' hardware technology, and the AI capabilities of Nvidia and DeepMind."

Hyundai Motor's core automotive business is also maintaining an edge over rivals. Volkswagen has moved to revise its electric vehicle strategy and restructure operations, while Ford and Honda have both flagged additional losses. Hyundai Motor, by contrast, is pursuing parallel electric vehicle and hybrid strategies and expanding its market share in the United States and Europe.

Eugene Investment & Securities projects Hyundai Motor's sales this year at 191 trillion won, up 2.3% from last year, with operating profit rising 14.8% to 13.2 trillion won. "Growth driven by hybrids and SUVs will continue, and rising raw materials prices will be offset by a favorable exchange rate environment," Lee said.