Oh Se-hoon pulls off stunning comeback to win fifth term as Seoul mayor

People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon pulled off a dramatic comeback to win a fifth term as Seoul mayor. Analysts credited his campaign's sharp criticism of the Lee Jae Myung government's real estate policy and his calls for a political counterbalance. Voter anxiety that the privately led urban renewal projects Oh had been pushing at pace could stall under a new mayor also appeared to factor into the result. The victory is notable, too, for having been won almost entirely on Oh's personal appeal, with the candidate keeping deliberate distance from his own party leadership throughout the race.

When exit poll results were announced at 6 p.m. Thursday, silence fell over the eighth floor of Daewang Building in Jongno-gu, where Oh's campaign was headquartered. Campaign staff faces tightened; audible sighs came from supporters. The numbers were grim — JTBC had Jeong Won-oh at 53.5 percent to Oh's 42.9 percent, while a three-network consortium put Jeong at 51.4 percent and Oh at 46.0 percent. About 10 minutes after the exit polls were released, most campaign officials in the front rows had left their seats. A senior campaign official said the count was still under way and that how things would develop "remains to be seen."

Oh had trailed Jeong in most polls right up to the final week before the blackout period. In the early stages of counting, Jeong led by more than 30 percentage points. Even after more than half the ballots had been tallied, the gap remained above 20 points. The deficit was not reversed until the count passed 70 percent. As Friday approached 5 a.m., the margin began to narrow steadily. At around 7:20 a.m., Oh crossed ahead — 48.66 percent to Jeong's 48.62 percent — completing the golden cross.

The road to that moment was anything but smooth. Oh had trailed Jeong in most pre-election polls as well. Early in the campaign he went on the offensive over allegations tied to a past assault incident involving Jeong, but was soon put on the defensive when news broke of missing rebar on the GTX-A line. The collapse of a demolition site at Seosomun overpass, which killed three people, was a major blow. Oh said he felt a sense of responsibility and suspended campaigning for two days in response.

On election day, Oh outperformed Jeong not only in the traditionally conservative strongholds of Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa and Yongsan, but also in Gangdong, Yeongdeungpo and Dongjak. Most of these districts sit along the Han River belt — areas sensitive to reconstruction and redevelopment activity and among the beneficiaries of Oh's signature Han River Renaissance policy. Oh had pledged to deliver 310,000 new housing units by 2031, with 270,000 of them concentrated in the Han River belt. Jeong countered with his own "step-by-step development" platform, but it was not enough to capture the belt's voters. Oh's pledges centered on privately led development, while Jeong's emphasized a mix of private and public initiative.

The argument for checking the ruling party's power also resonated. At a press conference in front of Hyochang Park Station in Yongsan on June 2 — the final day of campaigning — Oh said, "A country where both sides check each other is safer than one where a single side takes everything," and urged voters to "leave one last safety valve so that South Korea does not tilt completely to one side — leave us at least Seoul, the last line of defense." On election day, Wednesday, Oh shared a post by President Lee Jae Myung that quoted Plato on the dangers of being ruled by the worst, adding on his own social media: "This is exactly why your vote matters, fellow citizens."

Distancing himself from pro-Yoon forces from the outset of the race is also seen as a factor in his win. Oh twice delayed filing his candidacy application for the regional governorship nomination, demanding personnel reforms from the party leadership as a condition. In the process, he secured a resolution signed by all 107 People Power Party lawmakers opposing a political comeback by former President Yoon Suk Yeol. That same logic explains why Oh did not hold a single joint campaign event with People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyeok during the entire race. When asked about the party leadership, Oh said only that "each of us has our own role."

Many observers drew parallels between this race and the 2010 Seoul mayoral election. In that contest, Oh edged out Democratic Party candidate Han Myeong-sook in a nail-biter. Oh had led early, but Han moved ahead roughly two hours into counting, passing 9 p.m. on election night. Han stretched her lead and effectively declared victory, while Oh canceled scheduled events as defeat appeared imminent. Then the returns from the three Gangnam districts began to come in and the picture changed rapidly. After 4 a.m., Oh overtook Han and the gap widened. He ultimately won by 0.6 percentage points — 26,412 votes.

With his fifth term secured, Oh has in effect emerged as an icon of the conservative camp. He had previously been guarded in interviews about playing a role in conservative renewal, saying it was "not easy to speak about party affairs as mayor," but he is now widely expected to become a leading voice for reforming the right.

Also drawing attention is Oh's repeated pledge, made throughout the campaign, to attend Cabinet meetings and speak frankly to President Lee if elected. At a press conference on May 31, Oh said: "If you grant me one more term as Seoul mayor, I will attend the first Cabinet meeting after the ninth elected term begins and present — and push through — the five mandates of Seoul citizens directly before the president." The "five mandates" he outlined combine three urgent real estate policy reforms and two proposals on livelihood economics and democratic restoration — a package he calls "3Bu2Min." The items cover: normalizing reconstruction and redevelopment projects; expanding private rental housing supply to ease the jeonse and monthly rent crisis; building safeguards against real estate tax shocks; easing Greater Seoul regulations to revitalize the city's economy; and blocking the withdrawal of indictments to uphold democratic values. On real estate in particular, Oh said tax burdens on single-home owners below Seoul's median price should be capped at the rate of inflation, and that property tax base brackets should be rationally adjusted to reflect current housing prices, adding that he would "work together with the government to find solutions on all of these." Should Oh attend Cabinet meetings and square off against President Lee, the political landscape could quickly take shape around an Oh Se-hoon versus Lee Jae Myung dynamic.