Can Han River Bus stay afloat? Oh Se-hoon faces 'cooperative governance' test

Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon's re-election in the June 3 local elections means flagship city projects — including the Han River Bus and the "Gangbuk Renaissance" initiative — are set to continue. However, with the Democratic Party of Korea securing a commanding majority in the 12th Seoul Metropolitan Council, scrutiny of city government programs is expected to intensify. Cooperative governance with the council has emerged as one of the most pressing challenges Oh now faces in pushing his agenda forward.

According to local political sources, the Democratic Party won 80 of the council's 118 seats, while the People Power Party took only 38. That leaves Oh governing against a council opposition majority. With two-thirds of the seats, the Democratic Party now has the power to override any mayoral request to reconsider council-passed legislation.

Oh's signature projects could face a bumpy road ahead as a result. The Han River Bus — the initiative he has championed most passionately — is particularly expected to draw Democratic scrutiny. The service, which launched in September last year, is projected to run at a deficit through 2028 due to initial investment costs. According to a proposed amendment to the Han River Bus operating agreement that the Seoul Metropolitan Government submitted to the city council on May 26, the city plans to cover losses totaling 13.5 billion won (approximately $9.8 million) from the city budget through 2028.

Significant pushback on the Han River Bus is therefore anticipated when the 12th city council convenes next month. At a city affairs question session held in November last year, Democratic Party lawmakers already pressed Oh with pointed questions about the service's deficits and safety record.

The Seoul Metropolitan Government said ridership has been rising consistently and ancillary revenue is growing fast enough that a turnaround to profitability could come as early as 2028. Above all, it said the service is gradually earning the trust of citizens.

"There were early safety issues, but the Han River Bus has now established itself as a water transit option that has carried 300,000 passengers," an official from the city's Future Han River Bureau said. "If it earns the trust of citizens, I believe the city council — which represents those citizens — will come to view the Han River Bus more positively."

The Gangbuk Renaissance is another of Oh's signature projects. He has called closing the development gap between Gangnam and Gangbuk "Seoul's biggest homework" and made it a central campaign pledge, vowing to deliver the initiative if re-elected.

The "Again, Gangbuk Renaissance 2.0" project, which Oh personally unveiled in February, lays out a blueprint for balanced development in northern Seoul backed by a total of 16 trillion won — comprising 6 trillion won in national subsidies and private investment and 10 trillion won from the city budget. The plan breaks down by project as follows: underground routing of the Inner Circular Road and North Beltway at roughly 3.4 trillion won; underground routing of the East Beltway at 3.3 trillion won; construction of the Gangbuk Crosstown Line at 2.6 trillion won; the Seobu Line at 2 trillion won; the Dongbuk Line at 1.7 trillion won; and the Myeongmok Line at 1.1 trillion won.

The city is also pursuing area-based industrial development projects. In the northeast, it is advancing the Seoul-type industrial complex "S-DBC" — an advanced research and development hub in the Changdong and Sanggye area — alongside the Seoul Arena, a dedicated K-pop performance venue. In the northwest, plans are moving forward for the Digital Media City landmark site and the land to be vacated by the relocation of the West Driver's License Examination Center. The Sampyo Ready-Mixed Concrete site, the East Seoul Bus Terminal and the Gwangun University Station transit-oriented area are also slated for private investment to create jobs and expand infrastructure. To fund these efforts, the city plans to establish a "Gangbuk Renaissance Fund" worth a total of 4.8 trillion won.

Because these projects require substantial city budget outlays, council scrutiny is expected here as well. The council is likely to subject the rationale and projected costs of the Gangbuk balanced-development programs to rigorous review.

How much cooperation the city can secure from individual district governments is another variable. In the elections, the Democratic Party also won a majority of Seoul's local government leadership posts, taking 18 seats. Of the 14 district governments in the Gangbuk area, People Power Party candidates won only in Yongsan-gu, Jung-gu and Gwangjin-gu — the remaining 11 districts all went to Democratic Party district mayors.

"The Gangbuk Renaissance is a large project requiring substantial funding, so we will work to explain the necessity of each individual program to the city council and help them understand it," an official from the city's Balanced Development Bureau said. "Rail and road projects in the Gangbuk area have long been priorities for those communities, so I believe district mayors will cooperate actively regardless of party affiliation."