Argentina tops supercomputer World Cup predictions — where does South Korea rank?

With the 2026 World Cup in North America approaching, a supercomputer simulation has identified defending champion Argentina as the most likely team to lift the trophy.

Argentine daily Clarin reported Monday that researchers at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom ran a World Cup simulation in which Argentina came out on top, ahead of France and Spain.

The research team, led by University of Reading economist James Reid, evaluated the attacking and defensive capabilities of all 48 national teams competing in the 2026 World Cup based on every international match they played since January 2023. Using those ratings to project expected goals for each fixture, the team simulated the tournament more than 10,000 times.

Argentina emerged as the most likely winner. France and Spain were projected to battle closely for the title behind them, while Brazil and England rounded out the top five. Portugal, Colombia, the Netherlands, Germany and Uruguay also featured in the top 10.

"Argentina came out on top, but the gap between the leading contenders is very small," Reid said, adding that the tournament is likely to be highly competitive. He said Germany's defensive record appeared weaker than in the previous cycle, while Portugal ranked among the teams with the strongest attacking output. "This model analyzes attacking and defensive ability separately rather than relying simply on FIFA rankings," he said.

South American nations — including Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Uruguay — dominated the upper reaches of the rankings. Among countries outside Europe and South America, Japan ranked highest at 11th. Morocco came in 13th, the United States 18th and South Korea 20th.

Also drawing attention, Mexico — set to face South Korea in the group stage — ranked 15th, while the Czech Republic came in 34th and South Africa 39th.

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