Can Japan pull off an upset? What to expect from their World Cup clash with the Netherlands

With South Korea's opening World Cup victory setting the tone, Asian sides have been turning heads at the 2026 North America World Cup — and all eyes are now on Monday's Group F clash between Japan and the Netherlands. Inspired by South Korea's comeback win, Japanese fans are treating the match as a chance to prove that Asian football can hold its own against Europe's elite.

South Korea, under coach Hong Myung-bo, beat the Czech Republic 2-1 on Friday in their Group A opener — the country's first World Cup win in 16 years. Qatar then drew 1-1 with Switzerland to claim their first-ever World Cup point, while Australia defeated Turkey 2-0, capping a strong run of results for Asian nations in the tournament's opening days.

Amid that early momentum from Asia's top sides, Japan's Group F opener against the Netherlands — set for 5 a.m. Monday at Dallas Stadium in the United States — is being billed as another test of whether an Asian contender can compete with a European powerhouse.

Japan, coached by Hajime Moriyasu, enter the tournament as a dark-horse pick. Four years ago in Qatar, they topped their group by beating Germany and Spain in succession. Since March, they have gone 1-0 against England, Scotland and Iceland in friendlies — with the win over England marking the first time an Asian nation had beaten the Three Lions in an international match.

Japan head into the match, however, with significant injury concerns. Wide attacker Kaoru Mitoma of Brighton has been ruled out, and captain and central midfielder Wataru Endo of Liverpool also failed to recover in time and was dropped from the final squad — leaving Japan without two of their most important players at once. Still, the team retains quality cover in Takefusa Kubo, Ritsu Doan and Junya Ito, and their trademark high press and counter-attacking system remains a threat to any opponent.

The Netherlands, by contrast, have been boosted by the return of several injured players. Striker Memphis Depay, who has 55 international goals to his name, and Euro 2024 first-choice goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen of Brighton have both recovered from hip injuries and rejoined full training. A backline led by Virgil van Dijk and a midfield anchored by Frenkie de Jong give the Dutch a weight and quality that ranks among the best in Europe. Their recent form, however, has been uneven: they lost 1-0 at home to Algeria, ranked 28th by FIFA, and needed a narrow 2-1 win over Uzbekistan in a pre-tournament friendly.

ESPN, in a tournament projection published June 5, floated the possibility of Japan beating the Netherlands 2-1 to advance as Group F winners. In that model, the Netherlands held an Elo rating of 1,868 — with a 92 percent chance of reaching the round of 16 — while Japan sat at 1,833 with a 90 percent probability, effectively placing both teams in a class of their own within the group. Data analytics site Opta's supercomputer put the Netherlands' chances of finishing top of the group at 48.2 percent and Japan's at 26.7 percent — odds that suggest an upset is far from unthinkable.

Both coaches acknowledged the importance of the opening match, striking a tone that was measured but confident.

Netherlands coach Ronald Koeman spoke highly of Japan while making clear his side would not be rattled. "Japan's greatest strength is their unity as a team," he said, adding that "since both sides like to press, the ability to control the ball and dictate the game will be decisive." Midfielder Frenkie de Jong echoed that confidence: "Japan have pace, technique and a clear style, but we are prepared for what they bring."

In head-to-head history, Japan have never beaten the Netherlands in three meetings, recording one draw and two losses. Their best result came in a 2013 friendly that ended 2-2, and Japan have made clear they are determined to record a historic first win on the World Cup stage.

Japan coach Hajime Moriyasu, speaking at an official news conference, said the current 26-man roster represents his best available squad. "Our team concept is 'good defense leads to good attack,'" he said, outlining his plan to build from a solid defensive shape and transition quickly into offense.