Once the war's sole winner, Netanyahu now faces a reckoning

The end-of-war agreement between the United States and Iran has left Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cornered. Having failed to deliver the "complete victory" he promised the Israeli public, he faces worsening domestic opinion — and has lost the last excuse to delay his corruption trial. With hardliners in his coalition pushing back hard against the truce, his governing alliance is growing shaky, his political base is crumbling, and a second term looks all but impossible.

Netanyahu had been called the war's "sole winner" since fighting between the US-Israeli side and Iran began. Donald Trump faced fierce criticism almost immediately after hostilities broke out, as Iran's move to hold the Strait of Hormuz hostage drove oil prices higher and delivered a bigger shock to global supply chains than anticipated. Even within the Make America Great Again base, support for the war was low, and mounting inflation made ending the conflict an urgent priority ahead of November's midterm elections.

Iran, too, suffered devastating losses despite its public vows to fight on indefinitely. Airstrikes killed much of its leadership, including the supreme leader, and left its military and nuclear facilities in ruins. A US counter-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and additional economic sanctions compounded the pressure. Middle Eastern nations also took heavy blows as Iranian strikes and the strait's closure disrupted energy exports — a cornerstone of their economies.

Israel, by contrast, seized the moment to press its long-sought offensive against Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah, framing the campaign as the fulfillment of a national aspiration. The war also spared Netanyahu the immediate danger of a parliamentary dissolution and a snap general election. Under the legal deadline of March 30, failure to pass a budget through the Knesset would have triggered early elections — an outcome that put his continued hold on power in doubt. A public mood against destabilizing a wartime government allowed the budget to squeak through on the final day, extending his administration through October. Netanyahu had also used the war as cover to postpone his corruption trial, citing assassination threats allegedly orchestrated by Iran as the reason he could not appear in court.

Netanyahu's troubles began in April, when the United States and Iran agreed to a truce and US mediation also brought Israel and the Lebanese government to a cease-fire.

Domestic opinion quickly soured over fears that Israel's war objectives would go unmet. The Israeli public had overwhelmingly backed the full neutralization of Iran's nuclear capabilities and the continuation of the fight against Hezbollah. When Israel agreed to the truce under US pressure, opinion turned against Netanyahu swiftly. A poll of 1,300 Israelis conducted at the time by Hebrew University's AGAM Lab found that 75 percent of respondents believed Israel had failed to achieve its war goals, and 70 percent said the cease-fire agreement represented a concession to the United States. Netanyahu's approval rating slipped to 34 percent immediately after the April truce, down from 40 percent at the start of the war.

Netanyahu's political survival moved into deeper jeopardy Sunday when Israelis received the news of the US-Iran end-of-war deal not as a "complete victory" but as a "complete defeat." Israel has long governed through coalition arrangements, and hardliners within the current coalition are pushing back fiercely against the terms of the settlement.

Reelection now looks out of reach. Reports that Israel was effectively sidelined as the United States and Iran hammered out their deal have fueled calls to hold Netanyahu accountable for a failure of diplomacy. Netanyahu had staked much of his political identity on his personal relationship with Trump, but Israel's continued Hezbollah strikes right up to the eve of the agreement strained that relationship — a blow to his standing as a diplomatic and political operator. A poll conducted this month by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 60 percent of respondents said Netanyahu should not run in the October general election.

With the war winding down, Netanyahu can no longer put off the corruption trial that has dragged on for six years. Israeli President Isaac Herzog has declined to grant a pardon despite repeated requests from Trump on Netanyahu's behalf. Instead, Herzog offered to broker a plea bargain between Netanyahu and prosecutors. The Ministry of Justice has said it would consider a plea deal only if Netanyahu meets certain conditions, including admitting guilt. Netanyahu has flatly rejected the charges, calling the case a "politically motivated witch hunt led by the police and prosecutors" — leaving the prospect of any plea agreement very much in doubt.