Russia losing troops faster than it can recruit them, raising specter of forced conscription

Russia's strategy of waging a war of attrition through mass infantry assaults in Ukraine has reached its limits, analysts say.

As the war enters its fifth year, the strain on Moscow's ability to replenish troops and weapons is expected to grow steadily.

Russia's new recruit numbers in the first quarter of this year fell 20 percent from the same period last year, according to CNN, and the trend is expected to continue.

Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the war marks the first time Russia has paid civilians to enlist rather than resorting to forced conscription. "This policy is creating economic burdens and manpower problems," he said.

Russia has recruited soldiers by promising pay far exceeding civilian wages, but as the war drags on and reports of harsh conditions at the front have spread, that approach has also hit a wall. Gould-Davies said there are signs that financial incentives are no longer working, adding that "Russia has started losing more troops than it can recruit."

Analysts now warn that Vladimir Putin could resort to extreme measures — including a second wave of forced conscription or restrictions on the freedom of men of draft age to leave the country.

Russia has already sent tens of thousands of prisoners to the front lines and deployed North Korean troops in three separate rotations in an effort to address its manpower shortfall.

Concerns are also spreading across Europe that Russia may seek to break the battlefield stalemate by expanding the war into NATO territory, the Wall Street Journal reported May 26.

Russia has recently escalated its threats against the three Baltic states — Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia — as well as Nordic countries, according to the report.

Moscow accused Latvia of supporting Ukraine's drone operations and threatened to strike its "decision-making centers." In Lithuania, air raid sirens sounded after a drone believed to have been launched from Belarus entered its airspace, prompting the president and prime minister to evacuate.

Russia's Ministry of National Defense also published the addresses of companies in eight European countries it accused of cooperating in Ukrainian drone production, warning of "unpredictable consequences" and a "sharp escalation" if support for Ukraine did not stop.

However, no military signs have been detected indicating that Russia is actually preparing to attack Europe.

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