SpaceX valuation draws scrutiny after blockbuster debut — one analyst puts fair value at $63

SpaceX made a dazzling stock market debut, surging nearly 20 percent on its first day of trading, but the rally has deepened rather than resolved investor uncertainty as a sharp debate over the company's valuation shows no sign of settling.

SpaceX closed at $161.11 on Thursday on the Nasdaq, up 19.34 percent from its IPO price of $135, according to the financial investment industry.

Attention has quickly shifted to where the share price goes from here, with the market divided into two broad camps.

One camp warns of overvaluation. The first-day surge, critics argue, has already priced in much of the upside. The space industry's structural need for sustained heavy capital investment — and the uncertain timeline for turning a profit — adds to the concern.

SpaceX's current valuation already far exceeds those of traditional aerospace companies. Analysts say the premium could come under pressure depending on the Starship development schedule and how quickly the Starlink internet business can be monetized.

The valuation debate is particularly heated given that SpaceX's listing represents the largest corporate valuation on record. Last year the company posted sales of only $18.7 billion while racking up an operating loss of $4.9 billion.

Based on last year's sales, the price-to-sales ratio stands at roughly 96 times — far above Nvidia's 13 times, Tesla's 15 times and Apple's 10 times. The market, in effect, is betting heavily on future growth rather than current earnings.

SpaceX also recorded a net loss of $4.28 billion in the first quarter of this year. However, contracts with Google and Anthropic have provided some medium- to long-term revenue visibility.

Some analysts say the post-listing share price is already excessive. Morningstar, the global investment research and fund-rating firm, put SpaceX's fair value at $63 per share on Thursday — less than half the IPO price of $135. While acknowledging the competitiveness of SpaceX's launch vehicles and satellite communications business, Morningstar said uncertainty around the AI business and the risk of value dilution mean the listing price is overvalued.

The bull case, however, is equally forceful. Choi Geon, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, argued in a recent report that SpaceX's successful IPO should be read not simply as a space company going public but as the formal launch of "Elon Musk's space civilization project." The $75 billion raised through the IPO is earmarked for Starship development, Starlink expansion and the construction of orbital data centers, the report said.

The real investment thesis for SpaceX, the report argued, lies less in the space business itself than in its potential synergy with Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus. Choi said SpaceX and Optimus are closely linked in terms of AI, communications infrastructure and semiconductor supply chains.

xAI's generative AI model Grok is expected to combine with Tesla's autonomous driving system, Full Self-Driving, to serve as the brain of Optimus, while Starlink would handle the robot's real-time communications infrastructure. The semiconductor production framework being pursued jointly by Tesla and SpaceX could also enable in-house development of a dedicated AI chip for Optimus, the report said.

Ultimately, it comes down to a question of time horizon. In the near term, investors must weigh the valuation burden created by the first-day surge and the potential for heightened volatility. Over the long term, however, some argue that if Elon Musk's vision of connecting the space industry, AI and humanoid robots into a single ecosystem is realized, even the current valuation may prove too low.

Ko Tae-bong, head of research at iM Securities, said it is difficult to put an immediate figure on SpaceX's long-term value. He emphasized that the breadth of its business model — spanning Starlink, data centers and rockets — means the downstream effects over time could be enormous.

"The United States is pushing hard into space development as part of its effort to outcompete China in the struggle for global dominance, and SpaceX is the key private company driving that effort," Ko said. "When you factor in the possibility of a future merger with Tesla, the company's value extends well beyond its current profitability."