With fall elections looming, Netanyahu faces US warning that cease-fire deal could collapse

By Seo Ji-yeon, The Herald Business

Even as the United States and Iran have signed a cease-fire memorandum of understanding and launched follow-on nuclear negotiations, some analysts say the biggest wild card is not Iran but Israel. The concern is that if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presses ahead with military operations in Lebanon under domestic political pressure, the hard-won US-Iran agreement could unravel.

According to the Washington Post on Friday, US intelligence agencies have been monitoring the possibility that Israel will continue military operations in Lebanon. A recent internal report noted that Netanyahu faces pressure from domestic hardliners and the security establishment ahead of fall general elections — pressure expected to make it difficult for him to halt operations targeting Hezbollah.

US intelligence officials concluded that Israel's actions could conflict with key provisions of the cease-fire memorandum of understanding signed by Washington and Tehran.

The agreement includes a halt to hostilities on the Lebanese front. Yet Israel has continued military operations in southern Lebanon since the deal was reached and has not announced any plans to withdraw its forces.

US officials warned the Post that even Israel's continued occupation of parts of Lebanese territory could be enough to bring down the fragile agreement. One official said a resumption of conflict with Hezbollah was "almost certain" without a full Israeli withdrawal, calling the occupation of Lebanese territory "a shortcut to catastrophe."

The report is also said to reflect discontent within Israel. Hardliners there argue the agreement has weakened pressure on Iran and given Tehran breathing room. There is considerable frustration that the goals Israel pursued through the war — dismantling Iran's nuclear program and degrading its proxy forces — have in effect gone unmet.

Immediately after the US-Iran cease-fire announcement, Israel launched a large-scale airstrike on southern Lebanon. The Israeli military said the strike was retaliation for a Hezbollah drone strike that killed four Israeli soldiers, but the operation ultimately forced the postponement of the first planned face-to-face working-level talks between the US and Iran, which had been scheduled to take place in Switzerland.

Donald Trump has publicly called on Israel to show restraint. At a press conference during the G7 summit, Trump acknowledged having "a little bit of a difference of opinion" with Netanyahu over Lebanon.

He also signaled discomfort with the scale of Israel's military responses, saying there was no need "to blow up a building every time a Hezbollah person walks into it."

The remarks reflect a broader shift: the Trump administration, which gave Israel sweeping support in the early stages of the war, has of late begun publicly pressing the Netanyahu government to preserve the cease-fire framework.

The Post assessed that if Netanyahu expands operations on the Lebanese front, he risks not only undermining the US-Iran cease-fire framework but also driving a wedge between himself and Trump.