Korea's round-of-32 odds top 90% despite loss to Mexico

South Korea's chances of advancing to the round of 32 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup stand at more than 90%, despite the team's loss to Mexico.

Statistics firm Opta placed South Korea's probability of reaching the round of 32 at 90.53% on Sunday. The national team fell 1-0 to Mexico on Thursday in their second Group A match at Guadalajara Stadium, but they still sit second in the group with three points after their comeback win over Czech Republic in the season opener.

Mexico, who beat South Africa 2-0 and South Korea 1-0, have already secured first place in the group and a round-of-32 berth regardless of remaining results.

Czech Republic and South Africa, the other two teams in the group, each have one draw and one loss for one point apiece, though Czech Republic holds third place on goal difference. Opta put their respective round-of-32 probabilities at 30.04% and 18.88%.

Foreign media have also given South Korea strong odds of advancing. In a Saturday article headlined "How can South Korea reach the round of 32?", US sports outlet The Athletic put the team's chances at 90%.

Should South Korea advance as group runners-up, they would face the second-place team from Group B in Los Angeles on June 29. Switzerland is currently seen as the most likely opponent in that scenario. South Korea are ranked 24th by FIFA, while Switzerland sit 19th.

The Athletic added that if South Korea advance as a third-place team, they would play the Group B or Group G winner in Boston or Seattle — though it put the odds of that outcome at just 13%.

With a crucial match against South Africa on Thursday that will determine their fate, the squad took a rest day Saturday with no official training session, focusing on regrouping ahead of the decisive fixture.