Samgyetang hits 20,000 won as food prices surge — and July-August could be worse

A bowl of basic samgyetang — the traditional Korean chicken and ginseng soup — now costs 20,000 won (about $13) at Tosokchon, the famous Seoul restaurant that drew attention after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang paid a visit. Goryeo Samgyetang, a popular lunch spot for office workers in Jongno, charges the same. Premium versions with abalone or cultivated ginseng root push the price well above that threshold, prompting many Seoulites to grumble that eating samgyetang on the first of the three hottest days of summer has become a luxury.

Food prices are flashing red this summer. An early and intense heat wave has pushed up the cost of agricultural and livestock products, while a weak won is driving up import prices — squeezing household budgets from both directions. With the Korea Meteorological Administration forecasting above-average rainfall and a stronger-than-usual heat wave, upward pressure on prices is expected to persist for now.

According to data released Sunday by the Korea Institute for Animal Products Quality Evaluation's livestock distribution information system "Dabom," the national average retail price of broiler chicken this month stood at 6,650 won per kilogram — up 19.4 percent from 5,568 won in June last year. Broiler prices were in the 5,900-won range as recently as February, climbed to the 6,300-won range in March, hovered in the 6,500-won range in April and May, and have now crossed the 6,600-won mark.

Egg prices have also surged sharply. The national average retail price of a 10-pack of large eggs this month reached 5,222 won, up 38.6 percent from 3,786 won in June last year. It is the first time on record that the monthly average price of a 10-pack of large eggs has exceeded 5,000 won, effectively putting the per-egg price at around 500 won. A 30-pack now costs more than 7,000 won, and some hypermarkets are selling them for as much as 9,000 won.

The primary driver of the spike in egg and chicken prices is a supply shortage. A highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak that spread from last winter led to the culling of about 11.22 million laying hens, cutting egg output and disrupting broiler supply. As the supply-demand imbalance persisted, some hypermarkets imposed a one-tray-per-customer purchase limit on discounted eggs.

The heat wave arriving earlier than usual, combined with rising demand for stamina foods ahead of the traditional "bok" days of summer, has added further upward pressure. A phenomenon dubbed "heatflation" — where extreme heat stunts crop growth and kills livestock, pushing up prices — is also at work.

The price instability is not limited to eggs and chicken. Vegetable and seafood prices are also climbing. According to the Korea Agro-Fisheries and Food Trade Corporation's agricultural distribution information system KAMIS, the retail price of green onions this month was 2,827 won per kilogram, up 18.4 percent from 2,388 won in June last year. The national average retail price per 100 grams of red and green leaf lettuce also edged higher from last month, to 1,023 won and 1,024 won respectively. Even watermelon — a summer staple — averaged 24,292 won per fruit, up 8.9 percent from the same period last year.

A weak won is pushing up the cost of imported food as well. The retail price of salted mackerel, one of the most common imported seafood items, reached 10,803 won per pair this month, up 26.5 percent from 8,541 won in June last year.

The concern is that the current price pressures may only be the beginning. If the heat wave and monsoon season overlap, crop conditions could deteriorate further and prices could rise even more. The normal high temperature for Seoul in mid-June is around 27 to 28 degrees Celsius, but this year temperatures have already been running well above 30 degrees. Heat wave advisories were issued for southeastern and southwestern Seoul on June 18 — 12 days earlier than last year.

The government has moved to stabilize supply. The Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries has been releasing up to 8,000 metric tons of stockpiled seafood onto the market from May 20 through July 15. The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs has designated cabbage, radish and other key produce as priority-managed items and plans to release a stockpile of 34,000 metric tons immediately if needed. The government also plans to import more than 30 million eggs and bring in about 17 million hatching eggs for broiler production in phases to meet the surge in summer demand.

Lee Eun-hee, an emeritus professor of consumer studies at Inha University, said the government's efforts to release stockpiles and expand imports are under way, but cautioned that the pace of declining farm productivity driven by climate change is so rapid that a quick normalization of supply looks unlikely. "July and August, when the full monsoon and heat wave overlap, will be the critical turning point for household food prices," she said.

Experts say the recent price increases go beyond a seasonal phenomenon, reflecting the combined effect of climate change and supply chain instability. They warn that if extreme heat and abnormal weather patterns recur, price volatility in agricultural, livestock and fisheries products could intensify — prolonging the burden on consumers' wallets.

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