Argentina clinch round-of-32 spot as Messi scores twice, top finals odds

FIFA's top-ranked Argentina secured a place in the round of 32 at the 2026 World Cup on Tuesday, powered by a strong performance from Lionel Messi of Inter Miami. Statistics firm Opta rated Argentina as the most likely team to reach the final.

Argentina defeated Austria 2-0 in their Group J second-round match at Dallas Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The victory guaranteed Argentina's advancement regardless of their remaining group-stage results.

Messi was by far the standout player. Starting as the central striker, he converted a low cross from Facundo Medina on the left in the 38th minute, finishing with his left foot. He had missed a penalty in the ninth minute but made amends 30 minutes later.

Messi added a second in the fifth minute of second-half stoppage time, finishing off a swift counterattack. The brace brought his World Cup career tally to 17 and then 18 goals, surpassing Miroslav Klose's all-time record of 16. With five goals in this tournament alone, Messi is also closing in on the Golden Boot.

Argentina's momentum is reflected in tournament projections. Opta gives Argentina a 23.97% probability of reaching the final — the highest of any nation in the competition. Spain (23.13%), France (22.22%) and England (19.04%) follow.

However, Argentina's outright title odds stand at 13.26%, placing them third behind Spain (13.93%) and France (13.84%).

The Athletic, the sports outlet owned by The New York Times, acknowledged that Argentina has many talented players but said it was "not yet fully convinced" of how effectively the team could handle a high-powered attack, pointing to concerns about their defensive solidity.