South Korea could clinch Round of 32 spot Friday — here's how

Despite a shocking loss to South Africa, South Korea's men's national football team could still advance to the Round of 32 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The odds are slim, but Friday's results could confirm their place in the knockout stage.

Hong Myung-bo's side fell 1-0 to South Africa in their Group A finale on Thursday at Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe, Nuevo León, Mexico. A draw would have been enough to advance on their own terms, but the defeat dropped them to third place in the group.

Elimination is not yet confirmed. Unlike the old 32-team format — where only the top two in each group advanced — this expanded 48-team tournament allows the eight best third-place finishers across all groups to reach the knockout stage as well.

Third-place rankings are determined first by points, then goal difference, then goals scored. If teams remain level on all three, fair play scores come into play, with FIFA rankings serving as the final tiebreaker.

Korea needs to finish above at least four of the 12 third-place teams to advance. Scotland, who finished with one win and two losses (3 points, goal difference of -3), has already been confirmed below Korea (3 points, goal difference of -1).

If the third-place finishers from Groups D, E and F on Friday end up with fewer points or a worse goal difference than Korea, Hong's side will advance directly to the knockout stage. It is not a high-probability scenario, but it is far from impossible.

In Group D, either Australia (second, 3 points) or Paraguay (third, 3 points) must win their match. In Group E, Ecuador (third) and Curaçao (fourth) — both with one draw and one loss — must avoid winning. In Group F, third-place Sweden (one win, one loss, goal difference of 0) must lose to second-place Japan (one win, one draw) by two goals or more.

Meanwhile, statistics outlet Opta puts Korea's chances of reaching the Round of 32 at 87.6 percent. Sports outlet The Athletic projects the probability even higher, at 94 percent.