'Go, Japan!' — Korea's World Cup survival now hinges on its rival

As the final round of 2026 FIFA World Cup Group F matches got underway Friday (local time), the outcome of the Japan-Sweden clash emerged as the decisive factor in South Korea's bid to advance to the round of 32. For once, Korea is rooting for Japan.

In Group F, Tunisia has been eliminated after two losses, while the Netherlands and Japan — both with one win and one draw — are battling for the top spots. Third-place Sweden, with one win and one loss (six goals scored, six conceded), is level with Korea on three points but holds a better goal difference of zero, giving Sweden a significantly stronger chance of advancing.

Korea, which suffered a shock defeat to South Africa on June 25, sits at three points with a goal difference of minus one, leaving its tournament fate dependent on the final group-stage results. If Japan beats Sweden by two or more goals, Korea would leapfrog Sweden on goal difference and get the green light for the round of 32.

This World Cup features a record 48 nations divided into 12 groups. The top two finishers from each group — 24 teams in total — advance to the round of 32, along with the eight best third-place finishers across all groups.

Japan is currently favored to win the match. According to football statistics site Opta, supercomputer simulations give Japan a 52.7 percent chance of victory against Sweden's 22.2 percent.

Should Japan win or draw, the team would go through the entire group stage unbeaten for only the second time since co-hosting the 2002 World Cup with Korea.