South Korea's round-of-32 hopes grow slim — what scenarios remain?

South Korea's chances of advancing to the round of 32 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America are fading. Of nine possible scenarios that could send the team through, three needed to go in South Korea's favor — but so far only one has.

On Friday (Korea Standard Time), South Korea needed favorable results from three matches to gain the upper hand: Egypt beating Iran in Group G, Spain beating Uruguay in Group H, and Senegal beating Iraq by one goal — or Iraq winning or drawing — in Group I. The previous day's final Group D, E and F matches had already failed to produce the results South Korea was hoping for.

In the first match of the day, Senegal routed Iraq 5-0, sending South Korea's probability of advancing to the round of 32 falling from 53 percent to 36 percent. Spain's victory over Uruguay kept a flicker of hope alive, but Egypt could only draw with Iran.

South Korea's fate now rests on the results of the Group J, K and L matches on Sunday. The three remaining scenarios are: Austria beating Algeria, or Algeria winning by two or more goals; Uzbekistan beating the Democratic Republic of Congo; and Ghana beating Croatia.

South Korea must see at least two of those three scenarios play out to reach the round of 32. If they do not, Hong Myung-bo's side will be eliminated from the 2026 World Cup.