Russian recruits dying within 20-35 minutes of reaching front, rebellion feared

Most Russian recruits sent to the front lines in Ukraine have a life expectancy of just 20 to 35 minutes, some analysts say.

The New York Post, citing Russian local media and military bloggers, reported Sunday that Russian recruits are being killed by Ukrainian drone strikes at a devastating rate.

Ukraine has made extensive use of drones throughout the war. Outnumbered in troops, Kyiv has deployed them to strike targets ranging from the front lines deep into key Russian territory.

Peter Frankopan, a professor of world history at Oxford University, wrote in Foreign Policy magazine that from the moment recruits enter training, their expected survival window before being deployed to the front is just 10 days to three weeks.

To encourage voluntary enlistment, Russia has been offering recruits signing bonuses of up to $80,000 and debt-relief packages of up to $140,000.

According to multiple Western sources, total Russian casualties since the war began in February 2022 have been estimated at more than 1 million.

Ukraine's drone campaign has also battered the Russian economy, with strikes on oil refineries cutting the country's daily processing capacity by roughly 700,000 barrels, according to Reuters. More than half of Russia's regions have since introduced fuel rationing.

Alexander Lunin, a Russian military blogger and war veteran, warned that Russian commanders are "regularly torturing their own soldiers" and that "a mutiny could break out soon."

The mood inside Russia appears increasingly grim.

According to a CNN report from June 14, Russia's recruitment numbers in the first quarter of this year fell 20 percent compared with the same period last year, and the trend is expected to continue.

Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the war marks "the first time Russia has paid citizens to fight rather than conscripting them," adding that the approach "is creating economic strain and a manpower problem."

"Russia has started losing more troops than it can recruit," he said.

Amid these pressures, analysts say Vladimir Putin could resort to extreme measures — including a second forced mobilization or restrictions on the freedom of men of draft age to leave the country.

Russia has already sent tens of thousands of prisoners to the front and deployed North Korean troops in three separate rotations to help plug its manpower shortfall.

Gould-Davies said Russia's government "will face a fundamental choice between intensifying demands on the economy and society, or scaling back its war aims."