Kospi reclaims 8,000 as market eyes Samsung Electronics earnings

The Kospi is expected to see stock-by-stock divergence Monday as investors brace for a string of major semiconductor events, including Samsung Electronics' second-quarter preliminary earnings and SK hynix's American depositary receipt listing in the United States.

The benchmark index closed at 8,088.34 on Thursday, up 5.76 percent from the previous session, driven by a sharp rally in large-cap semiconductor stocks.

The index opened more than 1 percent higher that day but reversed course during trading, sliding as low as 7,378.10 at one point. Bargain hunters then stepped in, pushing the index back into positive territory and sending it to an intraday high of 8,136.28. The gap between the intraday high and low reached 758.18 points — the second-widest on record. The surge was sharp enough to trigger a sidecar, a temporary halt on program buy orders.

The rebound was fueled in part by bargain buying following the previous session's steep selloff, while weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls data eased concerns about further interest rate hikes and lifted investor sentiment.

Semiconductor stocks led the charge. Samsung Electronics surged 8.22 percent and SK hynix jumped 10.88 percent, both driving the index higher.

Foreign investors, however, net sold 2.175 trillion won ($1.4 billion) worth of shares, extending their selling streak to 11 consecutive sessions.

US markets were closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday substitute, while European stocks rose across the board on the back of strength in AI semiconductor shares.

The Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.82 percent, Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.25 percent and Germany's DAX advanced 0.78 percent. France's CAC 40 also climbed 0.39 percent.

Over the weekend, foreign media reported that follow-up negotiations between the United States and Iran on a post-ceasefire agreement are set to resume July 11 (local time). The two countries held indirect talks in Doha, Qatar, on July 1, and President Donald Trump described the negotiations at the time as "very good."

Domestic markets face a series of major semiconductor-related events this week. The most closely watched is Samsung Electronics' second-quarter preliminary earnings, due Tuesday.

According to Yonhap Infomax, the market consensus for Samsung Electronics' consolidated second-quarter operating profit stands at 84.58 trillion won. A result that significantly beats expectations could reignite the AI semiconductor rally, but analysts warn that a miss against elevated forecasts could trigger profit-taking.

"The market's actual expectations for Samsung Electronics' second-quarter operating profit may already be at or above the 85 trillion won level," said Han Ji-young, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities. "If the earnings surprise falls short of those expectations, sell orders could emerge as the catalyst is seen as exhausted."

Han added, however, that "it is worth remembering that both Samsung Electronics and SK hynix significantly underperformed the Kospi last week amid concerns over AI demand." Unlike past earnings seasons, hope and anxiety now coexist, making it "more appropriate to set a base scenario of market relief after the results rather than a sell-on-the-news reaction," he said.

SK hynix's US ADR listing, scheduled for Friday, is another key variable. The market expects the bookbuilding process to offer a gauge of US investor appetite for memory chip stocks.

Still, a weakening won and continued foreign selling remain headwinds. Foreign investors net sold shares on the Kospi for 11 consecutive sessions through the last trading day, with total net selling over that period reaching 36.83 trillion won.