'People's fish' no more: Why mackerel has become a luxury on Korean tables

A mackerel set meal now costs 15,000 won ($10).

As the prices of hairtail, pollock, squid and other fish climbed long ago, one species managed to hold its place as Korea's "people's fish" — mackerel.

But mackerel is no longer just an everyday fish. Prices have surged across both domestic and imported varieties.

Once available for under 10,000 won at home or at a restaurant, a mackerel set meal now runs about 15,000 won even at well-known grilled-fish restaurants in Seoul.

The gradual disappearance of Korea's staple fish comes down to one cause: rising sea surface temperatures. For mackerel in particular, warming waters have made it increasingly difficult to catch the larger specimens that Korean consumers prefer.

Mackerel is not alone. The volume of fish caught in waters near Korea has been declining steadily since the 2000s, as accelerating climate change reshapes the seas Koreans have known for generations.

According to the Korea Agro-Fisheries and Food Trade Corporation (aT), the average retail price of domestically salted mackerel in 2025 was 6,431 won per fish, up 32.4 percent — or 1,572 won — from 4,859 won in 2024. This year the average has eased slightly to 6,010 won, but remains well above historical norms.

Domestic mackerel prices have been particularly volatile since the 2020s. As recently as 2016 to 2019 — just five to 10 years ago — the average retail price of domestically salted mackerel held steady in the 3,000 to 3,100 won range.

Since then, prices have risen at an average annual rate of about 10 percent — 3,683 won in 2021, 3,855 won in 2022 and 4,393 won in 2023 — nearly doubling in just five years. This sets mackerel apart from other staple fish such as hairtail and pollock, whose prices rose earlier as catches declined.

What makes the mackerel case unusual is that overall output is not the problem. According to the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, Korea's coastal mackerel catch in 2025 reached 202,554 tons, up 62.1 percent from the previous year and about 80 percent above the five-year average of 111,143 tons.

The real problem is that large mackerel — the size Korean consumers prefer — have become scarce. According to the Korea Maritime Institute, in December last year, mackerel weighing 300 grams or more accounted for just 0.7 percent of fish auctioned at the Busan Joint Fish Market, down from 14.8 percent in December the year before — a roughly twentyfold drop.

Even a bumper catch, in other words, yields little that can be sold domestically. Most small and medium-sized mackerel are instead exported, primarily to African countries and China.

The disappearance of large mackerel is also being attributed in part to rising sea surface temperatures. As water temperatures have moved outside the preferred range for larger mackerel, established schools and fishing grounds have shifted. Researchers have also suggested that larger mackerel may be more sensitive to warming than smaller ones, and may have migrated northward more rapidly.

Korea's coastal waters are warming at a particularly steep rate. According to the National Institute of Fisheries Science's "Climate Change Impact Briefing Book," the average annual surface water temperature in seas surrounding Korea rose about 1.58 degrees Celsius between 1968 and 2024 — more than twice the global average increase of 0.74 degrees over the same period.

There is another reason consumers have only recently begun to feel the pinch. Despite rising domestic prices, a steady flow of Norwegian mackerel imports had been absorbing demand. But since the second half of last year, Norwegian import prices have also surged, eroding their role as an affordable substitute.

According to aT, the average retail price of imported salted mackerel this year stands at 10,708 won as of the 10th. After holding in the 6,000 won range through 2024, imported mackerel prices jumped to the 9,000 won range in 2025 and have continued climbing this year.

The surge reflects a sharp drop in Norwegian mackerel supply. Norway set this year's mackerel quota at 79,000 tons — roughly half the 215,000 tons allowed in 2024 and the 165,000 tons in 2025 — as the Norwegian government moved to protect fish stocks, inadvertently pushing prices higher.

The problem extends well beyond mackerel and hairtail. According to the "2025 Korea Climate Crisis Assessment Report" published by the Ministry of Environment — now the Ministry of Climate, Environment and Energy — Korea's coastal fishery output averaged 930,000 tons per year in the 2020s (2020–2023), down 40 percent from the 1980s (1980–1989).

The rapid decline in output stems from deteriorating fishing conditions. Decades of indiscriminate overfishing have depleted fish populations, while rising temperatures have driven away the familiar species that Koreans have long consumed.

There is no immediate fix for the collapse of marine ecosystems driven by warming. But preventing overfishing and protecting fish stocks is achievable through international agreement, and calls are growing for urgent compliance with global guidelines to secure sustainable fishery resources and safeguard marine ecosystems.