Analyst who called Kospi peak two months ago now says index will top 10,000 long-term

Amid a sharp recent decline in the Kospi, a brokerage report that accurately predicted the market's peak two months ago is drawing renewed attention — particularly because the analyst behind it now says the index has hit a technical bottom and will eventually break back above 10,000 points.

Lee Jae-man, head of global investment analysis at Hana Securities, wrote in a May 18 report titled "Kospi: Now Entering the 10,000-Point Era" that "if SK hynix's market capitalization — whose 2026–2027 net profit estimates are smaller than Samsung Electronics' — surpasses Samsung Electronics' market cap, that would signal the bull market has reached its peak."

That call proved correct.

SK hynix's share price surpassed Samsung Electronics' market cap for the first time on June 22, and on that very day the Kospi topped out at 9,114.55 points — its all-time high. The index then fell 20 percent in just two weeks, dropping to 7,291.91 on Thursday and entering a correction phase.

In a more recent report, Lee said the Kospi "has now technically reached a full bottom" and argued that the current decline "is not the result of any problem with corporate fundamentals, but simply a zone of psychological overselling," adding that the market "has accumulated more than enough energy to push back above the 10,000-point level over the long term."

Lee maintained a bold long-term outlook, saying the Kospi's upper range "could exceed 11,000 points at its maximum, given the long-term strength of the Korean stock market."

He based the projection on a quantitative valuation combining corporate earnings estimates with price-to-earnings ratios.

Applying the historical average PER of 9.96 times — the multiple at which the Kospi has traded since 2010 — to the projected combined net profit of 946 trillion won ($629 billion) for Kospi-listed companies in 2027 yields a fair-value upper target of 11,450 points, some analysts say.