Messi or Yamal? Experts weigh in on World Cup final

Argentina and Spain will meet in the World Cup final at 4 a.m. Monday (Korean Standard Time). Argentina's Lionel Messi is chasing a second consecutive World Cup title after winning in Qatar in 2022, while Spain's Lamine Yamal steps onto the World Cup final stage for the first time in his career.

The New York Times on Wednesday (local time) polled a panel of experts to predict the winner of the final.

Argentina secured their place in the final with a dramatic comeback victory over England in the semifinals. For Messi, it marks a second consecutive World Cup final appearance since lifting the trophy at the 2022 Qatar tournament. For Spain's 18-year-old sensation Yamal, it is his first.

The two players have never faced each other at the senior international level, but a photo of Messi holding a baby Yamal went viral after it surfaced online.

The final will also decide the tournament's individual awards — the Golden Ball for best player, the Golden Glove for best goalkeeper, and the Golden Boot for top scorer.

In the race for the Golden Boot, Messi currently leads with 8 goals and 4 assists. Kylian Mbappe is close behind with 8 goals and 3 assists, while Norway's Erling Haaland, already eliminated, has 7 goals. England's Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane are level on 6 goals each, and the third-place match could yet affect the final standings.

Most experts tipped Spain to win.

Phil Hay: "Spain. There's a confidence about them that suggests they already know they're going to win. While everyone was watching France, Spain quietly raised their level. Every position is stable and coach Luis de la Fuente's tactics are spot on. They've proved themselves on the big stage."

Carl Anka: "Spain. They were a bit slow early on but are now playing their best football. Rodri has rediscovered his peak form, and while Yamal hasn't racked up as many attacking contributions as expected, he remains a constant threat no opponent can ignore. They're not the pass-until-you-drop side of 2010-12, but they're the most efficient team in the tournament with the ball."

Seb Stafford-Blaor: "Spain. Argentina did well to exploit England's passive tactics in the semifinal and drag them into an emotional game. But there's no evidence yet that the same approach will work against Spain."

Dermot Corrigan: "After watching Spain dismantle France in the semifinal, it was hard to pick anyone else. Argentina's comeback win over England gave me pause, but Spain give the impression of a team moving steadily and unwaveringly toward their goal."

Henry Bushnell: "Spain. I haven't seen a national team this organized and in sync in a long time. They completely controlled the game against France and read the opposition's attack before it developed. I don't expect the final to be much different — if anything, it could be one-sided."

Stu James: "Spain. Honestly, I was convinced France would win right up until the semifinal, but Spain's performance completely changed my mind. They don't rely on any single player — they've come this far even with Yamal not at his absolute best. Argentina with Messi can always spring a surprise, but ultimately I think Spain are the stronger side."

Not every expert sided with Spain, however.

Lucas Vize: "I'll go against the grain — Argentina for me. Yes, Spain were flawless against France and have conceded just one goal in the entire tournament. But this Argentina side has the feel of a team of destiny. The string of comeback wins is proof of that."

Paul Tenorio: "Argentina. Objectively, Spain are the best team in this tournament. But Argentina are different. You can feel how hard every player is running for Messi. The belief, the fight, and the presence of Messi himself — you can't ignore any of that. They'll have the crowd behind them and the momentum from the comeback against England. I expect them to put on their best performance in the final."

Six of the eight experts predicted a Spain victory, while two picked Argentina. Even those who chose Argentina, however, pointed to the same factors as the key variables: Messi's presence and the team's run of comeback wins throughout the tournament.