US-Iran talks back to square one as truce document torn up, full-scale war fears grow

As fears grow that the armed conflict between the United States and Iran could escalate into a full-scale war, mediators including Qatar and Pakistan have stepped in to ease tensions. Analysts say the prospects for resuming negotiations remain uncertain, however, as both sides have in effect abandoned their earlier truce agreement and show no sign of narrowing their differences over control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Qatar on Tuesday proposed a mediation package to the US and Iran that includes a 10-day truce and the lifting of navigation restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters and other outlets.

Iran has also maintained contact with the mediating countries. Iran's Foreign Ministry said the mediators have conveyed various proposals aimed at preventing further escalation, and the Iranian foreign minister is set to visit Pakistan — which is co-mediating alongside Qatar — for consultations. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran had communicated its willingness to talk through the mediators.

The negotiating environment, however, has deteriorated sharply since last month.

Both sides have in effect voided the end-of-war MOU they signed last month. The dispute deepened as each party interpreted a key clause on control of the Strait of Hormuz differently.

Iran claimed the agreement gave it control over the strait and attacked vessels passing through without its permission. The US refused to recognize Iranian control, guided ships along an alternative route hugging the Omani coast, and military clashes expanded as a result.

Both sides then declared the agreement null and void, citing a breakdown of trust. In a recent interview, US President Donald Trump said the MOU "was meant to test Iran's willingness to negotiate, and Iran failed." Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei also declared the agreement void, saying even a document signed by the US president could not be trusted.

Military tensions continue to mount.

The US has pressed on with airstrikes on Iranian military facilities and a maritime blockade, while Iran has continued retaliatory strikes against US allies in the Middle East. The US has deployed additional F-16 and F-35 fighter jets to the region and has reportedly asked Bulgaria to host up to eight aerial refueling tankers.

The situation has grown more complicated with Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels entering the fray.

After Saudi Arabia struck Sanaa International Airport to cut off Houthi supply lines, the Houthis attacked Saudi territory and declared a maritime blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb strait at the entrance to the Red Sea. With the Red Sea — a critical corridor for Middle Eastern oil exports alongside the Strait of Hormuz — now also under threat, anxiety over energy supply chain disruptions is growing.

Experts are not optimistic about the chances of talks resuming anytime soon.

Umer Karim, a researcher at the University of Birmingham in the United Kingdom, told the Wall Street Journal that mediation has "become a near-impossible task," adding that "as long as Iran's leadership maintains its position of not relinquishing control of the Strait of Hormuz, finding common ground in negotiations will be very difficult."