US moves to unlock nuclear cooperation with Saudi Arabia, raising 'nuclear domino' fears in Middle East

A nuclear cooperation agreement signed between the United States and Saudi Arabia on Wednesday is expected to send significant ripples through the Middle East if it takes effect.

The deal, known as a "123 agreement" after Section 123 of the US Atomic Energy Act, has drawn concern because — unlike previous such pacts — it could potentially allow Saudi Arabia to enrich and reprocess nuclear material domestically, opening a long-term pathway to weapons-grade fissile material production.

The US Department of Energy announced that Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman signed both the nuclear cooperation agreement and a bilateral safeguards agreement Wednesday.

The department said it would "maintain high standards of nuclear safety, security and nonproliferation," but did not disclose the specific terms of the deal.

According to the Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and Reuters, the US is considering a "black box" arrangement under which it would build nuclear power plants in Saudi Arabia and transfer uranium enrichment and spent-fuel reprocessing technology for reactor fuel — while restricting access to enrichment and reprocessing facilities to US personnel only.

The central concern is that the existing safeguard barring Saudi Arabia from enriching uranium or extracting plutonium could in effect be removed. Under the reported terms, Saudi Arabia could mine or import its own uranium and enrich it domestically once commercial viability is demonstrated through two years of joint research.

The New York Times said this means the US president could invoke a waiver on the core provision of existing 123 agreements — which prohibit enrichment, reprocessing and transfers without US approval. According to the Congressional Research Service, all 26 existing agreements the US has concluded with 51 countries were approved without such waivers.

The deal invites comparison with the UAE, the only Middle Eastern country to have signed a 123 agreement with the US, which did so in 2009.

The UAE accepted what is known as the "gold standard" — forgoing the right to produce its own nuclear fuel — and agreed to rigorous inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency under an additional protocol.

Saudi Arabia has rejected both the gold standard and the additional protocol throughout years of negotiations with the US. Based on reporting to date, the kingdom appears to have largely prevailed on those positions.

That is why the international community, including neighboring countries in the region, has reason to question Saudi Arabia's intentions. Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman said in 2018 that if Iran developed a nuclear weapon, Saudi Arabia would follow suit.

Even as the US and Saudi Arabia insist the agreement will not lead to nuclear weapons development, concerns are expected to grow that it could trigger a "nuclear domino" effect across the Middle East, drawing in countries such as Turkey and Egypt.

Particularly difficult to deflect will be accusations of a double standard: the US has been waging war for five months demanding that Iran dismantle its nuclear program and remove its nuclear material, while now appearing to advance its own interests by extending nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia.

In practice, both the US and Saudi Arabia stand to gain substantial economic and diplomatic benefits — tangible and intangible — from the agreement.

The US is expected to secure exclusive supply of Westinghouse's AP1000 reactors for Saudi Arabia's nuclear plants. The New York Times put the value of Westinghouse's contracts alone in the billions of dollars, while the Wall Street Journal estimated the deal's total economic value over its 30-year lifespan in the tens of billions of dollars.

The deal would also allow the US to block Chinese and Russian influence in Saudi Arabia's nuclear sector — both had been eyeing the contracts — and could open the door to Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel and joining the Abraham Accords in return.

For Saudi Arabia, building nuclear power plants would free up oil currently burned for domestic electricity generation for export, while reducing carbon emissions — a stated goal of Crown Prince bin Salman. The kingdom currently generates 68 percent of its electricity from natural gas and 32 percent from oil.

As Saudi Arabia competes with Iran and Turkey for dominance in the Middle East, the US seal of approval also bolsters its regional standing in ways that cannot be ignored. Karen Young of Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy said Saudi Arabia would gain "prestige within the region."

Christine Diwan, a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, called it "a big commercial and geopolitical win in that it enriches American companies and ties Saudi Arabia closer to the United States," but added that "the damage to the international nuclear nonproliferation regime is significant."

Israel, which stands to be most directly affected by a US-Saudi nuclear deal, has yet to issue an official position. Foreign media reported a split between those who said a civilian nuclear program was nothing to worry about and those who warned it could evolve into a military one.

Israeli Economy and Industry Minister Nir Barkat said in a radio interview, "If they want it for peaceful purposes — for their energy needs — we can live with that."

Former Defense Minister and opposition politician Avigdor Lieberman, however, said "every military nuclear program starts from a civilian program."

The agreement is likely to clear Congress. Blocking it would require a joint resolution of both chambers passing with more than two-thirds support — enough to override a presidential veto.

If the deal falls through, Saudi Arabia could turn to China, Russia, South Korea — which built the UAE's nuclear plants — or France as alternatives, Reuters said. The New York Times added that Saudi Arabia had previously considered soliciting bids from those countries.