China's CXMT lists in Shanghai, setting sights on global DRAM top three

China's Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on Monday, stoking expectations in China that the global DRAM semiconductor market is on the verge of a major reshaping.

The global DRAM market is dominated by Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and Micron, which together hold an oligopoly. According to market research firm Counterpoint Research, the three companies held first-quarter sales-based market shares of 38 percent, 29 percent and 22 percent, respectively. While CXMT is not yet in the same league, its share has climbed from 3 percent in the first quarter of last year to 8 percent this year — a pace of growth that has drawn considerable attention.

Experts said that if CXMT sustains large-scale investment using the capital raised through its IPO, it could quickly expand its market share and mount a challenge to the current three-way dominance. CXMT raised 57.92 billion yuan ($8.53 billion) through the offering. If the overallotment, or greenshoe, option is exercised, the total raised could reach 66.61 billion yuan, or about 14.4 trillion won.

Industry analyst Ma Zhihua told Chinese state-run English-language outlet Global Times on Monday that CXMT's rise has positioned Chinese DRAM makers to compete with the world's leading players. Ma said CXMT plans to use the IPO proceeds to upgrade its 12-inch DRAM wafer production lines and invest in research and development of high-bandwidth memory (HBM), among other areas. With ample resources now available for capacity expansion and R&D, he said, the pace at which the company strengthens its competitiveness will accelerate. Ma also said CXMT has the potential to break into the global DRAM top three alongside Samsung Electronics and others.

Chen Jing, vice chairman of the Institute of Technology Strategy Research, said CXMT's rise marks the first time China has a globally competitive memory chip manufacturer with strong capital, production capacity and technological capabilities. He added that the listing has bolstered China's confidence in its "hard tech" sector — core technologies that require long-term R&D and involve significant technical hurdles.

Chen described CXMT as a "market reshaper" rather than a "market disruptor," saying that while the company's capacity expansion could slow DRAM price increases, supply is still struggling to keep up with demand. CXMT is therefore unlikely to trigger a price war among manufacturers or reverse the current upward price cycle, he said.

Financial media outlet Yicai said CXMT's listing would accelerate the localization of China's memory industry supply chain. While acknowledging that a gap still exists between CXMT and the global top three, Yicai expressed hope that the listing would benefit not only CXMT but also key companies across the industry chain. "The overall strength of China's integrated circuit industry chain will rise further," it said.

One industry insider said China's memory sector has long grappled with insufficient production capacity and pressure to close the gap on core technologies, adding that "CXMT's listing will help strengthen R&D and innovation capabilities and accelerate the construction and upgrading of production capacity."