South Korea's Danuri to observe SpaceX Falcon 9 debris strike the moon — 'force of 3 tons of TNT'

South Korea's lunar orbiter Danuri (KPLO) is set to observe the impact of a SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage expected to strike the moon's surface Wednesday.

Korea AeroSpace Administration (KASA) said Monday that the Falcon 9 upper stage is scheduled to hit the lunar surface near the Einstein crater at 3:34 p.m. Wednesday Korean Standard Time, and that Danuri will capture imagery before and after the impact.

The upper stage, weighing approximately 4.9 metric tons, is expected to strike the moon at 2.43 kilometers per second, forming a small impact crater roughly 20 to 30 meters in diameter.

The rocket component was part of the launch vehicle that carried American space company Firefly Aerospace's lunar lander Blue Ghost and Japanese space company ispace's Resilience to the moon in January.

After completing its mission, the upper stage has been drifting between Earth's and the moon's gravitational fields before its anticipated collision.

Danuri will use its high-resolution camera (LUTI) to photograph the impact site before and after the strike, working alongside other international lunar probes to document changes to the surface.

KASA said it expects the observations to yield important data for research into lunar surface changes and impact mechanics.

On the day of the impact, Danuri will maneuver its orbit to pass over the impact site three times, capturing high-resolution footage while also operating its polarimetric camera.

KASA said the imagery will be analyzed by relevant research institutions and released to the public once the analysis is complete.

KASA chief Oh Tae-seok said the agency will "strengthen lunar exploration and space environment research capabilities through Danuri and international cooperative observations, and continue to expand international collaboration opportunities going forward."

According to the astronomical community, the impact will release energy equivalent to 3 tons of TNT and will occur on the near side of the moon.

The flash from the impact will last less than a second, but ejected material could scatter several kilometers. Observers in North America — where it will be the early morning hours — should be able to track the debris plume through telescopes for several tens of minutes.

Some estimates suggest Danuri could pass within a few kilometers of the rocket debris just two minutes before impact, though the upper stage's trajectory has not yet been precisely determined.

If confirmed, the Falcon 9 debris strike would mark the second known instance of an abandoned rocket accidentally hitting the moon. In 2022, debris from a Chinese rocket struck the lunar far side, leaving two craters.