Trump's ultimatum diplomacy loses its bite

A growing consensus holds that Donald Trump's signature brinkmanship negotiating style is no longer as potent as it once was. As the pattern of issuing severe warnings and ultimatums — only to pull back from military action or other hard-line measures — repeats itself, analysts say rival nations are no longer easily rattled by the president's threats.

According to the Washington Post on Tuesday (local time), Trump recently pressed Iran for a swift deal by invoking language about a "last chance before decapitation," yet the international community has broadly concluded that a large-scale military strike is unlikely to follow.

Trump has a track record of issuing sharp military warnings against Iran, then abandoning strike plans or pivoting to negotiations. That history has reinforced a widespread belief that holding out will ultimately force him to stand down.

Analysts both inside and outside the United States point to several factors constraining Trump's options: the political cost of the midterm elections in November, the financial burden of a prolonged military campaign and a depleted weapons stockpile.

The same dynamic played out in the tariff dispute with China, observers say.

Beijing refused to yield to Washington's high-tariff threats last year, retaliating with rare-earth export controls and a halt to purchases of American soybeans — moves that ultimately pushed the Trump administration to adjust some of its positions.

The mood in Europe has also shifted.

Early in Trump's return to power, many European governments moved to accommodate his demands as much as possible to avoid straining ties with Washington. Over time, however, skepticism has grown — a sense that giving in only invites larger demands.

In an analysis piece headlined "Trump keeps threatening, but the world isn't cowering," the Washington Post cited European diplomats as saying that while leaders still try to avoid provoking Trump, they no longer concede as readily as they once did.

Brando Benifei, chair of the European Parliament's delegation for relations with the United States, said, "We have gotten used to these announcements and no longer take all of them seriously."

Jeremy Shapiro, director for the United States at the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank, said Trump's bluster had been effective because it was backed by overwhelming American power and long-standing diplomatic credibility. "Those assets are gradually being depleted," he said.

"People are noticing that Trump is someone who can be coercive and, at the same time, someone who can easily back down," he added.

The repeated cycle of tough talk followed by retreat has even spawned a nickname in the United States: "TACO" — short for "Trump Always Chickens Out."

Some caution against underestimating Trump's negotiating leverage, however.

One European diplomat told the Washington Post that countries have learned that failing to respond to Trump's political rhetoric often lets situations fizzle out — but added that unpredictability remains a variable that cannot be ignored.

Pointing to the recent military operation against Iran as an example, the diplomat said, "Trump does not back down every time. That is precisely what makes him still difficult to read."