SpaceX shares tumble 8% after-hours despite strong debut earnings as AI spending, lockup expiry weigh

SpaceX beat market expectations in its first earnings report since going public, but analysts warn that mounting pressure from massive AI investment and an imminent large-scale lockup expiration could weigh on the stock in the near term.

According to Investing.com, SpaceX shares closed Tuesday up 9.43 percent at $125.33, buoyed by news that the company is co-developing orbital computing satellites called "StarMind" with Nvidia.

After the market close, however, the stock tumbled as much as 8.8 percent in after-hours trading after second-quarter results highlighted the cost of the company's AI ambitions — erasing most of the regular session's gains.

The results were SpaceX's first since it raised $86 billion in the largest initial public offering in history. Second-quarter sales came in at $7.81 billion, up 92 percent year-on-year and ahead of the consensus estimate of $6.81 billion. Growth was driven by rising Starlink subscriber numbers and expansion of AI-related business.

The company posted a loss per share of 9 cents.

SpaceX's sweeping AI investment plans, however, threw cold water on the otherwise strong results. The company said capital expenditure jumped to approximately $18.4 billion in the second quarter, of which about $15.8 billion went toward building AI computing infrastructure. Concerns over profitability and cash flow spread quickly, dragging the after-hours share price lower.

On a post-earnings conference call, CEO Elon Musk reaffirmed plans to aggressively expand xAI's computing infrastructure. "I expect the pace of AI development to improve dramatically," he said, adding that the goal is to build out 2 gigawatts of computing capacity by the end of this year and around 10 gigawatts by the end of next year.

Seo Sang-young, a managing director at Mirae Asset Securities' WM Innovation Division, said that with the bulk of the $18.37 billion in capital expenditure going toward AI computing, the investment burden is high, and key variables going forward include the sustainability of AI demand, the payback timeline on large-scale data center investment, regulatory approvals and intensifying competition.

The upcoming lockup expiration adds another layer of uncertainty. According to SpaceX, approximately 911.5 million shares held by employees and some early investors will become tradable Thursday local time. That represents about 20 percent of all locked-up shares and is valued at more than $110 billion at current prices. Analysts say a wave of selling could amplify near-term share price volatility.

Short selling has also surged ahead of the lockup expiry. According to financial analytics firm S3 Partners, SpaceX's nominal short interest stands at approximately $23.6 billion, surpassing Tesla's at roughly $22 billion.

Global investment banks remain upbeat on SpaceX's long-term growth prospects. Morgan Stanley has set a price target of $300, while Raymond James has issued the most bullish call on Wall Street at $800.

According to the Korea Securities Depository, domestic investors net purchased $212.69 million worth of SpaceX shares between July 3 and Monday.

Their total holdings, however, have shrunk. As of Monday, Korean investors held $1.38 billion worth of SpaceX shares, down about 20.5 percent from $1.74 billion on July 3. The decline reflects the stock falling below its IPO price since listing.

As of Wednesday, SpaceX's market capitalization stood at $1.65 trillion, down roughly $1 trillion from its all-time high of $2.64 trillion recorded on June 16.