TSMC's 3nm monthly output seen hitting 180,000 wafers in Q4 on Nvidia-led demand

TSMC, the world's largest semiconductor foundry, is on track to produce 180,000 wafers per month using its 3-nanometer (nm) process in the fourth quarter of this year, Taiwan's China Times and other media reported Thursday, citing sources.

According to the sources, TSMC is expected to accelerate factory construction in response to strong order demand from major customers including Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom.

Driven by robust demand for AI and high-performance computing, TSMC has begun converting some of its 5nm equipment lines to 3nm to expand mass production. The sources said these efforts are expected to bring forward the 180,000-wafer monthly output target by two to three months, accelerating the momentum of 3nm shipments.

The sources also projected that once TSMC's 3nm factories under construction at Taiwan's Southern Science Park, in Arizona and in Kumamoto, Japan, begin mass production — in the first half of next year, the second half of next year and in 2028, respectively — monthly output will reach 220,000 to 250,000 wafers.

On the 2nm front, the sources said TSMC's monthly output in the first half of this year stood at roughly 50,000 to 60,000 wafers, rising to 80,000 in early Q4, and is expected to reach 100,000 by year-end and 180,000 by 2028. Combined monthly output of 2nm and 3nm chips is forecast to hit 250,000 wafers by the end of this year and surpass 400,000 by 2028.

A separate source said the expansion of AI demand from data centers into smartphones and humanoid robots has given TSMC another engine of growth. Qualcomm's Snapdragon 8 Elite 5th Gen for Galaxy — the chip powering the Galaxy S26 series — uses TSMC's 3nm-class N3P process.

The source also said TSMC, working with Taiwan-based fabless chip designer Global Unichip (GUC), is running one quarter ahead of Samsung Electronics in the tape-out schedule for Tesla's next-generation AI chip, the A15, which uses the 3nm process. Tesla's own in-house AI semiconductor, the AI6.5, is planned for production using the 2nm process at TSMC's Arizona factory.

Earlier, at its second-quarter earnings call in mid-July, TSMC said demand for advanced-process AI chips was very strong, with orders from major customers and cloud service providers continuing to grow and order visibility already secured through 2029 to 2030. The company also raised its annual capital expenditure guidance from around $50 billion to between $60 billion and $64 billion, signaling management's confidence in the sustainability of AI demand.

Meanwhile, Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, who favors close US ties and Taiwan's de facto independence, met Wednesday at the Presidential Office with Jedidiah Royal, former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, and other participants in the "Ketagalan Forum: 2026 Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue." Lai said Taiwan would maintain the status quo and hoped to engage with China on the basis of equality and dignity.

Lai said Taiwan's economy had improved after reducing its dependence on China, adding that the economic growth rate in the first half of this year reached 13.72 percent — the best performance in 50 years.