Jung leads in greater Seoul, Kim in Honam as Democratic Party leadership race tightens

The three candidates vying for the Democratic Party of Korea's leadership ahead of the Aug. 17 national convention — Song Young-gil, Jung Chung-rae and Kim Min-seok, listed in ballot order — are intensifying their campaigns in the greater Seoul area and the Honam region, the two most pivotal battlegrounds.

Polls released in quick succession show Kim leading among Democratic Party supporters and in the Honam region, while Jung holds an edge in the greater Seoul area and in surveys of the general public. The two candidates finished just 0.99 percentage points apart in the first-week regional primary covering the Chungcheong region and the Busan-Ulsan-South Gyeongsang area.

A Media Tomato survey on preferred candidates for the next Democratic Party leader, released Thursday and conducted July 27–28 among 1,033 adults aged 18 and older nationwide, put Jung at 36.9% and Kim at 28.0% — a gap of 8.9 percentage points outside the margin of error. Song trailed at 9.2%, while 21.8% said none of the above and 4.1% said they did not know. The poll had a 95% confidence level with a margin of error of ±3.0 percentage points.

Breaking down results by party affiliation, Kim led among Democratic Party supporters at 44.9%, outpacing Jung's 38.9% by 6.0 percentage points.

Jung dominated among Rebuilding Korea Party supporters at 54.4%, far ahead of Kim's 15.2%. Among People Power Party supporters, Jung also led with 38.7% against Kim's 10.1%. The Democratic Party leader is chosen by combining delegate and party member votes, which account for 70% of the total, with a 30% public opinion poll component.

A separate suitability survey by the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI), released Wednesday, showed a similar pattern. Conducted Monday through Tuesday among 1,002 adults aged 18 and older nationwide, the poll put Kim at 28.1% and Jung at 27.6% — a statistical dead heat within the margin of error. Song received 4.8%, while 28.8% said none of the above and 10.7% said they were unsure. The poll had a 95% confidence level with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.

Regionally, Kim held a commanding lead in Gwangju and the Jeolla provinces — the Democratic Party's traditional stronghold — at 42.6%, compared with Jung's 22.0%, a gap of 20.6 percentage points. In Seoul, Jung led with 27.5% against Kim's 25.0%, a margin of 2.5 percentage points. In Gyeonggi Province and Incheon, Jung pulled ahead more decisively at 32.0%, outpacing Kim's 23.0% by 9.0 percentage points, outside the margin of error.

Political observers analyzing the recent polls say that despite the overall tight race, Kim holds an advantage in the Honam region and among Democratic Party supporters, while Jung leads in the greater Seoul area and among voters aligned with parties other than the Democratic Party.

KSOI said the contest "is unfolding less as a one-sided surge by any single candidate and more as a clash of distinct support bases," adding that "the outcome of the remaining primaries will likely hinge on how much each candidate can widen the gap in their own strongholds while narrowing the deficit in their rival's."

Both candidates are aiming to seize momentum in the Honam and Seoul-Gyeonggi regional primaries scheduled for Aug. 15–16. Kim appeared Thursday on the YouTube program "Kim Eojun's Humility Is Hard News Factory," where he predicted, "We will definitely win in Honam, and we will carry that momentum straight through to the greater Seoul area." He added that he expects to surpass 50% of the total vote overall and anticipates a similar result in Honam.

Jung, appearing on the same YouTube program Wednesday, said, "In practice, the greatest number of voters is in the greater Seoul area, and I am ahead there." He added that if results from this week's Jeju-Incheon and Gangwon-Daegu-North Gyeongsang primaries come in close, "there will be a major shake-up in Honam."

Meanwhile, Song shrugged off calls from some within the pro-Lee Jae Myung camp to withdraw and consolidate votes behind Kim. Speaking to reporters after a National Assembly press conference Wednesday, Song said, "Withdrawing midway is simply out of the question." He explained that finishing the race in third place would still benefit the leading candidate, since his votes would be redistributed proportionally to the top finisher, and said party members deserved the chance to make their choice until the very end.

The pool of eligible party members for the second-week regional primaries — covering Jeju and Incheon and Gangwon-Daegu-North Gyeongsang, scheduled for Saturday and Sunday — stands at about 1.52 million, or roughly 11% of the total electorate, and is widely seen inside and outside the party as having limited influence on the overall outcome.

By contrast, the Honam region accounts for about 500,000 eligible party members, or roughly 33%, and the Seoul-Gyeonggi bloc for about 580,000, or roughly 38%, meaning the final week is in effect expected to decide the race. "Voter sentiment has largely solidified," one party insider said. "We have entered a phase of dividing up the undecided — those within 5% who have yet to make up their minds."