US bases in South Korea, Japan vulnerable to North Korean, Chinese attacks, expert warns

As the Iran war laid bare the air defense vulnerabilities of US military bases in the Middle East, an American expert has warned that US installations across the Pacific — including in South Korea — are highly exposed to missile and drone attacks from China and North Korea. The warning comes amid growing concern that US air defense capacity is being stretched thin, with American military operations against Iran rapidly drawing down stocks of Patriot missiles and other critical assets, potentially leaving gaps in the Pacific as well.

Seth Jones, director of defense and security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed Monday that "the United States has been too slow to learn lessons from the Ukraine war and protect US bases and other infrastructure in the Middle East," adding that "the challenges in the Pacific are even greater."

"Iran's recent attacks on US bases in the Middle East, including in Jordan, illustrate the growing threat from adversary missiles and drones," Jones said. "But the United States is not adequately prepared to defend its overseas bases, critical infrastructure and personnel."

He added that US military facilities across the Pacific are "particularly vulnerable to Chinese and North Korean attacks, just as US facilities in the Middle East are."

Jones assessed that Iran launched more than 2,000 missile and drone strikes across the Middle East during the war, damaging at least 20 facilities used by US forces in eight countries. More than 42 US aircraft were damaged or destroyed — many of them at air bases — and total US losses from equipment damage and facility destruction were estimated at up to $13 billion.

Jones noted that since the Ukraine war began in February 2022, both Ukraine and Russia have taken extensive measures to protect their bases and critical infrastructure against evolving drone and missile tactics. Ukraine in particular has sharply expanded its deployment of surface-to-air missiles, counter-drone systems, and electronic warfare equipment and sensors to detect, intercept or jam incoming threats. It has also built physical defenses including counter-drone netting and multi-layer concrete structures, he said.

Jones said the United States had remained passive in protecting its Middle East bases and infrastructure despite these examples. "China poses a far more serious threat, possessing drones and cruise, ballistic and hypersonic missiles that are larger in scale and more capable than Iran's," he said. "US bases and infrastructure across the Pacific — from Japan and the Philippines to Guam and South Korea — are highly vulnerable to Chinese and North Korean missiles and drones."

To protect US bases and critical infrastructure, Jones proposed building a three-tier active defense system capable of identifying, intercepting and neutralizing missiles and drones — covering long-range, medium-range and short-range threats.

At the long-range tier, he cited the need to supplement the Patriot air defense system, whose supply is already running short. For the medium-range tier, he called for strengthening the US next-generation Indirect Fire Protection Capability (IFPC) system — a mobile, ground-based weapons platform designed to intercept low-flying drones and cruise missiles, sometimes called "America's Iron Dome."

For short-range defense, Jones pointed to the Coyote and Merops counter-drone interceptor systems designed to take down kamikaze drones. He also said directed-energy weapons (DEW) such as high-powered lasers and microwave systems are useful for drone defense, as are radio frequency (RF) jamming and electronic warfare systems.

In addition, Jones said strengthening passive defenses is equally important, calling for the construction of underground facilities for key infrastructure, the installation of netting and barbed wire, and the erection of high-density, multi-layer concrete barriers.

He also said the military should employ deception tactics — as Iran and Ukraine have done — by producing and deploying decoys resembling Patriot batteries or fighter jets to draw enemy fire.

Beyond that, Jones said naval and air base facilities should be dispersed to make them harder to strike. To address these needs, he urged Congress to increase funding for the Defense Ministry's facility maintenance, restoration and modernization, and called on the Pentagon to spend that money quickly.

"In a world awash in drones and missiles, the United States has already paid a steep price for lack of preparation. Can the US military learn its lessons before the costs grow even higher?" Jones said. "China, Iran, North Korea and Russia are watching."