US intelligence assesses Iran prioritizes Strait of Hormuz control over nuclear program

US military intelligence has assessed that Iran is placing greater strategic priority on controlling the Strait of Hormuz than on its nuclear program, according to multiple American officials familiar with the matter.

NBC News reported Tuesday that several US officials conveyed the intelligence community's assessment. Military officials also briefed President Donald Trump that while the United States could attempt to seize control of the strait by force, success was not guaranteed.

The briefing warned that such an operation would be time-consuming, deadly and costly, with the potential for significant US casualties — both wounded and killed in action.

NBC News also reported that European and Gulf region countries share that assessment. Those countries have warned Washington that any US attempt to force open the strait would be a dangerous operation with an uncertain outcome and could invite missile and drone strikes against American warships.

Trump has claimed that US forces control the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran has been negotiating with Oman over arrangements to manage the waterway and has sought to expand its own control there.

Observers note that the war with Iran has paradoxically handed Tehran a powerful bargaining chip in the form of the strait. Two European officials told NBC News that Iran believes it effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz and holds the upper hand in negotiations, viewing the waterway as stronger leverage than its nuclear program.

With the Iran war now stretching past five months, Trump finds himself in an increasingly difficult position. Escalation carries a heavy burden as munitions are rapidly depleted. Yet pulling back while Iran asserts control over the strait would expose the administration to criticism that it achieved no progress on denuclearization while leaving the waterway in crisis.

The United States and Iran had originally agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US maritime blockade on Iran, with a 60-day window for follow-on negotiations on issues including denuclearization. But continued military exchanges between the two sides have left those talks in limbo. The 60-day deadline runs through Sunday, though analysts had widely expected from the outset that the follow-on process would struggle to produce any meaningful outcome on Iranian denuclearization.

Trump's remark Sunday that he was "responding like Rocky" has prompted analysis that he may be pivoting away from sustained military action toward an economic pressure campaign — a strategy of attrition through expanded sanctions rather than direct force.

A prolonged US maritime blockade and expanded sanctions would deal a serious blow to Iran's leadership, observers note, though it remains unclear whether such measures could prove fatal to a regime that has endured decades of international sanctions.