47% back selective conscription system, nearly 60% support drafting women: poll

Nearly half of South Koreans support introducing a "selective conscription" system as a way to address the military's shrinking manpower pool caused by the country's low birth rate, a new poll shows.

The Reform Institute, a think tank affiliated with the Reform Party, released the survey results Wednesday, showing that 47.4 percent of respondents backed the selective conscription proposal — slightly ahead of the 41.9 percent who opposed it.

The poll, conducted Tuesday among 1,006 adults aged 18 and older nationwide, also found that more than 50 percent of both men and women supported drafting women into military service.

Despite the overall support for selective conscription, skepticism ran high about its effectiveness: 49.9 percent said the system would not help resolve the military's manpower shortage, while only 42.7 percent believed it would.

When asked about the preferred direction for the country's military service system, 41.5 percent favored a hybrid model combining conscription and a volunteer force. Maintaining the current conscription system came in second at 35.4 percent, followed by a full transition to an all-volunteer force at 10.6 percent.

However, respondents in their 20s and 30s showed notably stronger support for keeping the current conscription system — 48.3 percent and 47.6 percent, respectively — compared with other age groups. Among men in their 20s and 30s, 49.0 percent preferred maintaining the status quo.

On the question of including women in the draft, 59.6 percent of respondents said they were in favor, while 34.0 percent opposed the idea. Support was higher among male respondents (64.8 percent) than female respondents (54.5 percent). Men in their 20s and 30s were particularly supportive, with 71.7 percent backing the proposal.

Reform Party leader Lee Jun-seok said the overall public leaned in favor of selective conscription, but pointed to a significant divide among those who would actually be affected. "Among people in their 20s and 30s — the very generation this system would apply to — opposition reached as high as 41 percent, regardless of gender," he said. "That is a signal that the design is missing the people it concerns most. Any reform of the military service system must start with the consent of the generation that will bear it."

The survey was conducted as a general social issues poll, not an election poll, and was therefore not subject to registration with the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission. The sampling methodology, weighting, and margin of error were nonetheless designed and applied in accordance with the standards used for general political polling.

On Tuesday, President Lee Jae Myung used opening remarks at a senior staff meeting he chaired at Cheong Wa Dae to call for swift military reform. "Given the persistent low birth rate, it is neither possible nor desirable to maintain the current manpower-heavy, infantry-centered and inefficient military structure," he said. "We must push ahead quickly and thoroughly with defense reform — introducing selective conscription to transform our military into a smart, elite force centered on advanced equipment and technology."

The selective conscription concept is a military service reform proposal Lee has championed since his first presidential run in 2022. It would preserve the basic framework of the current conscription system while giving eligible individuals a choice between serving as short-term conscripts or enlisting as long-term, technology-focused combat noncommissioned officers specializing in fields such as AI, drones and cyber operations — a hybrid of conscription and a volunteer force.