South Korea targets 5.6-fold expansion of renewable energy capacity by 2040

The government plans to expand South Korea's renewable energy installed capacity to 236 GW by 2040 — roughly six times the current level. To meet that target, the average annual pace of renewable energy deployment must also rise to more than three times last year's rate.

The expansion is driven by surging future power demand tied to what the government calls three mega-projects: the Honam semiconductor cluster, data center construction and related large-scale developments.

The projections were presented Wednesday at the sixth public forum on the 12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand, held at Korea Electric Power Corporation's South Seoul headquarters in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul. Jo Sang-min, a professor at Korea University of Technology and Education and a member of the 12th Basic Plan steering committee, laid out the renewable energy deployment outlook.

The projections are set to be incorporated into the generation capacity plan under the 12th Basic Plan. They were calculated based on scheduled projects and estimated market potential.

Under the outlook, renewable energy installed capacity is expected to hit the government's interim targets of 100 GW in 2030 and 163 GW in 2035, before reaching 220 GW in 2040.

On top of that, self-generation solar capacity is projected to grow to 8 GW in 2030, 12 GW in 2035 and 16 GW in 2040.

Combined, total renewable energy installed capacity would reach 236 GW by 2040 — 5.6 times the current 42 GW, which includes 5 GW of self-generation solar.

A report released last month by the Korea Development Institute (KDI), titled "Policy Tasks for Effective Expansion of Renewable Energy Deployment," found that the average deployment pace over the past five and a half years has been 1.7 GW per half-year.

To realize the newly presented projections, installed capacity would need to grow by roughly 13 GW per year — about four times the current rate.

By energy source, commercial solar power capacity, currently at 31 GW, is projected to rise to 86.7 GW in 2030, 122.2 GW in 2035 and 155.3 GW in 2040.

"We set the 2040 market potential of 271 GW as the saturation point and derived the projections based on past deployment performance," Jo said. "Reflecting the government's commitment to concentrating its policy capacity on an accelerated renewable energy transition, we projected that capacity would reach 87 GW by 2030 and grow to 155 GW by 2040."

Onshore and offshore wind capacity, currently at 2.1 GW and 0.4 GW respectively, are expected to climb to 6.1 GW and 3.1 GW by 2030, 12.0 GW and 25.0 GW by 2035, and 15.5 GW and 45.0 GW by 2040.

Self-generation solar capacity, which stood at 4.6 GW two years ago, is forecast to reach 8.1 GW in 2030, 11.9 GW in 2035 and 16.3 GW in 2040.

The steering committee said it plans to revise its projections in line with a proposed regulation — currently in the legislative notice period and set to take effect in September — that would cap setback distances for solar installations at zero meters from roads and within 200 meters of residential buildings.

However, the committee said recalculating market potential and deployment projections to reflect the changes, along with reviewing grid capacity and revising other facility plans, would take considerable time, and the updated figures would instead be incorporated into the 13th Basic Plan.