Oil prices surge over 6%, WTI tops $100 as supply disruptions become 'new normal'

International oil prices jumped more than 6 percent in a single day as armed conflict spread across the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate joined Brent crude in breaking above $100 a barrel, putting both benchmarks in triple digits at the same time. Supply fears are pushing oil prices higher as concerns over disrupted crude shipments spread from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea. Those fears have been compounded by growing expectations that the war between the United States and Iran could drag on.

WTI futures for October delivery closed at $102.48 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Thursday (local time), up $6.43, or 6.69 percent, from the previous session. The contract has now risen for eight consecutive trading days since Aug. 31.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, also surged, with the November contract settling at $107.63 a barrel, up $6.42, or 6.34 percent. That marks a fifth straight day of gains. Both benchmarks climbed to their highest levels in roughly four months, since May 19.

Supply disruption fears erupting simultaneously across the Middle East drove the rally. Amid continued US airstrikes and Iranian retaliatory attacks, the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments — has seen repeated incidents, including the sinking of oil tankers.

The situation in the Red Sea is also worsening. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels have seized Mokha, a major city on the Red Sea coast, threatening a key crude shipping route there as well. That has heightened concerns that oil transport could be disrupted simultaneously in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

Markets are particularly focused on the possibility that the war will not end quickly. The Wall Street Journal reported that some of President Donald Trump's closest aides have been privately discussing the possibility that the war with Iran could continue through the end of his term. That has fueled concerns that the "war premium" attached to oil prices — typically tied to short-term geopolitical risk — could become a long-term fixture.

In fact, oil prices have continued their sharp climb in recent sessions. With WTI rising for eight straight days and Brent for five, the rally looks less like a single-day spike and more like a sustained upward trend. If supply chain instability persists, it will be hard to rule out oil prices holding above $100 a barrel.

Some in the market are now suggesting that the Middle East-driven supply disruption may no longer be a temporary shock. Instead, it could become a lasting feature of the market environment.

"The oil market is entering a sustained, long-term 'new normal' in which supply disruption risk is not temporary," S&P Global Commodity Insights said.