'Kim Jong-un's gamble' estimated to have earned North Korea $10 billion; further deployments seen as inevitable
It now "seems certain that more North Korean troops will join Russia's war," the BBC reported Monday, amid speculation that Pyongyang could deploy as many as 50,000 additional soldiers. An estimated 13,000 North Korean troops have been sent to Russia since late 2024, with roughly 3,000 believed to have been killed.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has raised the prospect of further North Korean deployments while calling on South Korea to provide air defense support, last month raised his estimate of potential additional troops to as many as 50,000.
In a report examining North Korea's military involvement in Russia, the BBC said the deployment to Kursk "was a gamble for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un" — one that "paid off for this poor and isolated country, despite the heavy casualties."
Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) estimates that of the approximately 13,000 North Korean troops deployed since late 2024, around 3,000 have been killed and 1,500 wounded. A separate analysis by BBC Korea, based on a review of memorial sites, put the death toll at around 2,300.
HUR estimates that the roughly 8,500 North Korean troops remaining on Russian territory have been organized into four brigades, tasked with holding back Ukrainian forces in Kursk and defending the Russian border.
In a statement sent to the BBC, HUR said the troops "are not participating in combat operations" and "are not observed in temporarily occupied Ukrainian territory."
Citing experts, the BBC identified two key gains from what it called Kim's "gamble": an "economic windfall" and a "geopolitical shift."
According to Im Su-ho, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification Strategy, North Korea's estimated earnings from weapons sales and troop deployments to Russia amount to $10 billion — nearly one-third of the country's GDP.
Analysts also say that cooperation with Russia has triggered a broader geopolitical realignment, reducing North Korea's longstanding dependence on China.
"The deployment has enormous economic and political value for North Korea, and Russia desperately needs them," the BBC said, describing the arrangement as "a mutually beneficial relationship and a solidarity that comes at a price."
The BBC added that "ultimately, North Korea will keep sending soldiers to fight in Russia's war" — but "only for as long as it remains profitable."
hss@heraldcorp.com
