Trump to announce South Korea's US investment plan Thursday — Alaska LNG in the mix?

US President Donald Trump is set to formally announce South Korea's investment projects in the United States at 4:30 a.m. Thursday (Korean Standard Time), with the key question being whether South Korea's participation in the Alaska liquefied natural gas development project will be included.

Seoul has been cautious about the Alaska LNG project, citing concerns over its commercial viability, but Trump is widely expected to unilaterally announce it ahead of November's midterm elections. The project would still require additional negotiations and National Assembly approval before it could be formally designated as a South Korean investment commitment to the United States.

According to foreign media reports, Trump will make the announcement alongside Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick at the Oval Office at 4:30 a.m. Thursday (Korean Standard Time).

The White House has not disclosed the specifics of the announcement, but Reuters and Bloomberg reported that the package is expected to include a $54 billion South Korean investment in the Alaska LNG development project.

The $54 billion figure cited by the two outlets would represent roughly 27 percent of the $200 billion strategic investment ceiling the two countries agreed upon.

Adding the $22.3 billion Encinal gas combined-cycle power plant in Texas and up to $120 billion for the construction of as many as eight US nuclear power plants, the total would reach $196.3 billion. Even if all three projects were executed at their maximum values, the combined figure would fall short of the $200 billion strategic investment ceiling.

If the two countries conclude a final agreement covering all three projects, the $54 billion Alaska investment could be executed within the agreed framework.

However, the South Korean government has confirmed only the Encinal project as its first designated US investment commitment. The construction of up to eight large nuclear reactors and the Alaska LNG development project have been left as subjects for further negotiation, with no decision yet on whether to proceed.

Both projects require additional review to determine whether they meet the government's core criterion for US investments: commercial rationality.

The Alaska LNG project would transport natural gas from the Prudhoe Bay and Point Thomson oil and gas fields on Alaska's North Slope through roughly 1,300 kilometers of pipeline to the south, where it would be liquefied and shipped to markets in Asia and elsewhere.

The project demands enormous upfront capital, and its profitability remains uncertain — concerns about its commercial feasibility have been raised consistently. Even major US energy companies, including ExxonMobil, have already pulled out, citing risks to investment recovery.

Trade, Industry and Energy Minister Kim Jung-kwan told the National Assembly last year that the Alaska pipeline project was "a high-risk venture," adding that "commercial rationality is limited to projects capable of generating cash flow, which makes it difficult for us to participate under our own criteria."

Despite this, Trump has shown strong enthusiasm for the project, repeatedly and preemptively declaring that South Korea would invest in the Alaska LNG venture.

Commerce Secretary Lutnick also said last year via social media that South Korea's $200 billion investment targets would include "the Alaska natural gas pipeline, energy infrastructure, critical minerals, advanced manufacturing, AI and quantum computing."

Alaska is a competitive battleground state for the midterm elections in early November and one of Trump's top political priorities. While Trump won Alaska by a wide margin in the 2024 presidential election, a tight race is now unfolding between incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and a Democratic candidate for the Senate seat.

The Alaska LNG project has a prior diplomatic history: when Trump made his first state visit to South Korea on Nov. 7, 2017, a joint press statement issued after his summit with then-President Moon Jae-in announced that "Korea Gas Corporation has signed an MOU with the Alaska development company on establishing a framework for cooperation in developing Alaska's natural gas infrastructure."

Korea Gas Corporation had signed an MOU with the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation (AGDC) in June 2017, five months before the summit — a large-scale project with a total investment of $39 billion. Korea Gas Corporation has since extended the MOU with AGDC twice but ultimately let the project fall through.