Trump hits record-low approval rating ahead of midterms as Hispanic support collapses

Donald Trump's job approval rating has fallen to the lowest point of his political career, weighed down by inflation pressures from high oil prices that have reached their most intense level in more than four years. Analysts say the rapid erosion of support among Hispanic voters — a group that helped deliver Trump's 2024 presidential election victory — is compounding the Republican Party's difficulties ahead of next month's midterm elections.

A Reuters-Ipsos poll conducted online from Wednesday through Monday (local time) among 4,506 American adults nationwide, released Monday, found that just 32 percent of Americans approved of Trump's job performance. The margin of error was plus or minus 2 percentage points. The figure matched a September poll by the same organizations and marks the lowest approval rating across Trump's combined first and second terms.

The drop among Hispanic voters was particularly sharp. Only 24 percent of Hispanic Americans approved of Trump's job performance — the lowest level recorded across his two terms in office.

Among independents, the Democratic Party held a more pronounced lead. Some 37 percent of independents said they supported the Democratic Party, compared with 21 percent for the Republican Party — a gap of 16 percentage points. However, 28 percent of registered independent voters had not yet decided which party to support.

Trump's sagging approval rating is also clouding the Republican Party's prospects in the midterms. With less than a month to go before the Nov. 3 elections, 44 percent of registered voters said they would support the Democratic Party, against 37 percent for the Republican Party.

Among registered Hispanic voters, only 26 percent said they would vote Republican, while 52 percent said they would vote Democratic — giving the Democratic Party double the Republican Party's share. It is the largest gap the Democratic Party has recorded over the Republican Party among Hispanic voters since Trump took office.

Inside the Republican Party, concern is growing about the prospect of a difficult election. A significant number of political analysts expect the Democratic Party to recapture the House majority. Assessments suggest the Senate has also entered competitive territory where the Republican Party can no longer count on holding its ground.

High prices and cost-of-living pressures are seen as key factors behind Trump's declining approval. Since the United States entered the war with Iran in late February, gasoline and diesel prices have surged, accelerating the rise in consumer prices.

In the Reuters-Ipsos survey, Americans named the cost of living as the most important issue they would consider when voting next month, reflecting the inflationary pressure that has built since fuel prices spiked following the start of the war with Iran.

Reuters noted that Trump and the Republican Party are heading into the November midterms with an unemployment rate of 4.2 percent — historically low — but said the US labor market is burdened by structural problems including slowing hiring, stagnant workforce participation and weak real income growth despite that low unemployment.