Democrats hold edge in House majority battle, analysis shows

Democrats hold a stronger position than Republicans in the battle for control of the House of Representatives heading into the Nov. 3 US midterm elections, according to a new analysis.

Cook Political Report's latest assessment, released Monday (local time), rated 171 House seats as solidly Republican, with another 16 leaning in the party's favor. Democrats, meanwhile, have 185 seats rated as safe and are favored to pick up an additional 17.

That puts Democrats at 202 seats in the safe-to-likely column — meaning they need only 16 more to reach the 218 seats required for a majority. Republicans stand at 187 safe-to-likely seats and need 31 more to hold their majority.

The remaining 46 districts, where no candidate is considered safe, form the competitive battleground where control of the chamber will be decided. Of those, 13 lean Republican, 12 lean Democratic, and 21 are true toss-ups.

Democrats' advantage stems largely from the makeup of those 46 competitive seats: 34 of them, roughly 74 percent, are currently held by Republican incumbents, while Democrats are defending only 12. That means Republicans face a far greater risk of losing seats. Democrats need to win just about one in three of the contested districts — 16 seats — to reclaim the majority.

Many of the competitive House districts are concentrated in states also expected to determine Senate control, including Maine, North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa and Texas.

"As the midterms approach, the political environment appears to be growing increasingly favorable for Democrats and increasingly bleak for Republicans," The Washington Post said, adding that the expanding list of competitive districts has drawn in seats once considered safe Republican wins.

Colorado's 5th District, Florida's 13th and 27th, Minnesota's 1st, Ohio's 10th and 15th, and Wisconsin's 1st are among the clearest examples — all held by Republican incumbents who once appeared headed for easy re-election but now face genuine contests.

Michigan's 10th District, Arizona's 1st and Iowa's 2nd have also become Democratic targets after their Republican incumbents left to run for Senate or governor seats.

Redistricting that favored particular racial or demographic groups has also reshaped the map this cycle. As a result, incumbent lawmakers from both parties in Florida's 22nd District and California's 48th District either moved to different districts or opted not to seek re-election, making those seats targets for the opposing party.

Several other districts landed on the competitive list for candidate-specific reasons. New Jersey's 7th District, held by Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr., who suspended his legislative activities for four months without explanation, is now a battleground. So is Ohio's 7th, where Republican Rep. Max Miller faces domestic violence allegations brought by his former wife. Texas's 28th District, held by Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, who was indicted on bribery and money laundering charges, has also been rated as competitive.