Only 0.7% of indie K-pop groups become million-sellers, study finds

The K-pop industry has entered an era of long-running acts. Major-agency idol groups that have passed the 10-year mark have proven remarkably resilient: their activity continuation rate stood at 49.8% at the 10-year mark and held at 47.1% at both the 15- and 20-year marks. For groups from smaller agencies, the picture was far bleaker. The continuation rate for so-called "indie idols" — groups from small and medium-sized agencies — was 13.2% at 10 years, 11.4% at 15 years and 8.9% at 20 years. Nine out of every 10 groups that ever took the stage came from smaller agencies, yet it is the major-agency acts that have lasted.

Kim Jeong-seop, a professor in the Department of Cultural Industry and Arts at Sungshin Women's University and chairman of the Global K-Culture Economy Forum, conducted a comprehensive analysis of 1,159 idol groups that debuted between 1996 and 2025. Kim said Monday that the research confirmed "a structure in which groups from small and medium-sized agencies account for a large share of new group supply, but show a significant disadvantage compared to major-agency groups in activity continuity and high album sales performance." Kim published the findings in a paper titled "Disparities by Agency Size in the K-pop Idol Music Industry and Research on Support Measures for Small and Medium-Sized Agencies" in Volume 20, Issue 6 of the Journal of the Korea Entertainment Industry Association.

Kim had previously published a paper in the same journal last July examining the survival rates and hit performance of groups that debuted in the 30 years since H.O.T. This new study covers the same three-decade span but compares groups by agency size. Groups that debuted under the direct labels, subsidiaries or affiliates of six major companies — Hybe, SM, JYP, YG, CJ Group and Kakao — each with annual sales exceeding 500 billion won ($373 million) last year, were classified as "major." All others were classified as "small and medium-sized." The classification is based on the agency a group belonged to at the time of its debut.

Of the 1,159 groups studied, 1,042 came from small and medium-sized agencies and 117 from major agencies. Across male, female and mixed-gender groups alike, those from smaller agencies made up between 84 and 92 percent of the total.

Once past the starting line, the two trajectories diverged rapidly. Looking at statistically adjusted continuation rates — which account for groups still active — the gap at the one-year mark was roughly 20 percentage points: 86.3% for major-agency groups versus 66.5% for smaller-agency groups. By the fifth year, seven out of 10 smaller-agency groups had ceased activities, leaving only 28.7% still performing. Among major-agency groups, 65.2% were still on stage.

Girl group RESCENE, widely cited as a standout success story among indie idols, stood squarely on that precipice. RESCENE, the sole artist on the roster of The Muse Entertainment, debuted in March 2024. Their song "Love Attack," released that August, started near the bottom of the charts. After content on member Wonyi's YouTube channel went viral, the song climbed back up and reached No. 1 on Melon's Top 100 on July 8 this year — nearly two years after its release. The five members also claimed their first music broadcast No. 1 trophy on July 14 of the same month. The study found that the probability of a smaller-agency group remaining active through its third year is 42.2%. RESCENE's comeback arrived right at that threshold.

The widest gap between the two groups appears at the seven-year mark, when the maximum contract period under the standard exclusive artist contract expires. At that point, 59.0% of major-agency groups were still active, compared to just 20.1% of smaller-agency groups — a gap of 38.9 percentage points. In effect, four out of every five smaller-agency groups had stopped activities before their first contract ran out. Of the 1,159 groups in total, 68 remained active for more than 15 years and 32 for more than 20 years.

Kim said the results call for viewing the K-pop ecosystem as "a question not simply of entry, but of survival and continuity."

The sheer breadth of K-pop's supply pipeline has long been seen as one of the industry's strengths. Kim described the structure in which smaller agencies produce the vast majority of new groups as "positive in the sense that the supply base for new music content and artists within the industry is broad." Drawing on the resource partitioning theory from organizational ecology, Kim located smaller agencies' competitive edge not in matching the scale of major players but in "the potential to compete through specialization and differentiation" — casting them as niche players carving out their own space.

In album sales, however, that niche proved narrow. Among the 117 major-agency groups, 44 — or 37.6% — surpassed 300,000 copies of a single album, a threshold the industry treats as roughly break-even. Among the 1,042 smaller-agency groups, only 26, or 2.5%, cleared that bar — a ratio gap of 15.1 times. The disparity widened as the threshold rose. For 500,000 copies or more, 34 major-agency groups (29.1%) qualified versus 15 smaller-agency groups (1.4%), a gap of 20.2 times. At the million-seller mark, 24 major-agency groups (20.5%) qualified against just 7 smaller-agency groups (0.7%) — a gap of 30.5 times. Even at the 100,000-copy threshold, often viewed as an early signal of growth potential, the ratio stood at 8.6 times: 67 major-agency groups (57.3%) versus 69 smaller-agency groups (6.6%).

Cumulative sales across multiple albums followed the same pattern. For 5 million copies or more, 10 major-agency groups (8.5%) qualified versus 3 smaller-agency groups (0.3%); for 10 million or more, 6 major-agency groups (5.1%) versus 2 smaller-agency groups (0.2%). At the 20-million-copy mark the numbers flipped — 2 smaller-agency groups (0.2%) versus 1 major-agency group (0.9%) — but the study declined to treat this as evidence of a size-based advantage given the small sample. Kim concluded that a "winner-takes-most" structure centered on major-agency groups emerged in a pattern consistent with prior research.

The solutions Kim proposed target the period after a group's debut. To help groups grow, recoup investment costs and sustain long-term activity through reinvestment, the paper put forward 10 policy tasks across five areas: finance and investment; production and retail; digital and global expansion; professional talent and performance; and industry environment and capacity building. The recommendations were refined through three rounds of Delphi surveys with seven experts from the agency, media and academic sectors. Of an initial 18 proposals, 8 were dropped for failing to reach consensus — including dedicated tax breaks for smaller agencies.

The highest-scoring task — 9.57 out of 10 — was a policy fund and investment program linked to intellectual property acquisition. The paper argued that financial and investment support would narrow the funding gap with major agencies and lay "a stable foundation for production and reinvestment." Support for artists' health, safety and welfare came second with 9.14 points, while marketing support using social media, short-form video and AI scored 8.00 — the lowest among the 10 tasks.

The government has been leaning toward easing production costs. The Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism is pursuing a new tax credit for popular music production costs and a policy loan program. Through a new initiative launched this year to support smaller-agency groups in expanding globally, 10 groups — including RESCENE — were selected, with their agencies eligible to receive up to about 300 million won per year for up to three years. As of 2023, the average annual music production budget for large companies stood at 43.11 billion won, compared to 1.49 billion won for smaller companies.

The study also scrutinizes existing government support measures. Kim acknowledged that the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism has been expanding production cost tax credits, dedicated funds, loans and overseas expansion support, but said "whether these policies are grounded in sufficient analysis of the structure of the industrial ecosystem and their expected effects warrants review." The paper also noted methodological limitations: debut timing and gender were not controlled for, and album sales data compiled by different bodies across different periods are difficult to compare rigorously. Differences by agency size were also interpreted as distributional rather than causal. "The idol music industry needs to be understood as the contribution of all participants in the industry, not just the successful few," Kim said.