Prediction markets put odds on Jensen Huang's exit, divorce after affair admission

Investors are placing bets on whether Jensen Huang can hold on to his role as Nvidia CEO — and whether his marriage will survive — after the founder quickly acknowledged an affair with a woman suspected of being a Chinese spy.

Contracts tied to Huang's future at Nvidia have appeared on US prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, with early figures tilting in his favor.

According to a CNBC report Monday (local time), Kalshi put the probability of Huang leaving Nvidia by 2027 at 17%, rising to 30% by 2028 and 35% by 2029.

The total amount wagered on Kalshi had grown to $355,416 as of Tuesday.

The odds of an early departure have also climbed.

The probability of Huang leaving in the first half of next year stood at 33%, while the chance of his departure at any point next year reached 45%. The figures rise further over time — 58% by 2028, 62% by 2030 and 70% by 2032.

Analysts say the numbers reflect not only the possibility of an early exit driven by the current scandal but also the longer-term likelihood of a leadership succession.

On another prediction market platform, Polymarket, the probability of Huang voluntarily resigning or being removed by the end of March 2027 was assessed at 25%.

According to Fortune, Polymarket put the odds of Huang divorcing before March 2027 at 23%.

Prediction markets are venues where participants wager money on whether specific events will occur, with trading prices used to estimate the probability that market participants assign to those events. They are not objective statistical measures of actual likelihood.

The prediction market activity emerged just one day after Huang acknowledged the affair with a woman suspected of working for China's Ministry of State Security and Nvidia's board announced it had launched an investigation.

The New York Times reported that US intelligence officials had determined Huang was a target of Chinese intelligence operations. The Chinese government rebuffed the allegations as baseless slander.

Nvidia's board launched a probe into reports that Huang had been targeted by a foreign intelligence agency. However, the board said it maintains confidence in Huang and has no reason to believe that national security or Nvidia's confidential information has been compromised.

Huang will continue to lead the company during the investigation. In an apology statement Monday, he said leading Nvidia is "the greatest privilege of my life" and that he remains "committed to Nvidia and will work to rebuild trust."