'Dr. Doom' who called Kospi's fall below 5,000 says buy bonds, not shares

Kim Young-ik, an adjunct professor at Hanyang University's Future Talent Education Institute known as "Korea's Dr. Doom," is drawing attention after his warning in August that the Kospi could fall below 5,000 proved accurate. Kim now expects the Kospi to remain sluggish through the first half of next year and is advising investors to put their money into bonds rather than shares. He also said investors should not simply hold cash, given that share prices, gold and apartment prices have all risen faster than inflation.

In a video posted Thursday on his YouTube channel "Kim Young-ik's Economics School," Kim said interest rates are set to enter a downward trend as the economy slows, and that there is no reason to sit on cash when the rate of appreciation across all asset classes has outpaced consumer price inflation.

Kim analyzed the average monthly returns of various assets — bank deposit rates, 10-year government bond yields, apartment prices and the Kospi — against consumer price inflation over the 25 years from 2000 to 2025. He found that while consumer prices rose at a monthly rate of 2.5 percent, bank deposit rates returned 3.3 percent, 10-year government bond yields 3.9 percent, apartment prices 4.6 percent, the Kospi 8.0 percent and gold 10.8 percent.

"You need to invest in some asset, but you have to adjust the weighting," Kim said. "Current economic indicators are pointing to declines in the stock market, real estate and interest rates."

Kim highlighted that the leading index cycle variation — a short-term economic forecasting indicator — had turned negative for the first time in 11 months. "The leading index cycle variation and the Kospi move in the same direction, so if the leading index continues to fall through next year and the current economic slowdown deepens, the Kospi's floor will drop another level," he said.

On apartment prices, Kim said historical trends show that when the Kospi falls, Gangnam apartment prices drop first, followed by apartment prices nationwide.

Kim said interest rates are on a medium- to long-term downward trajectory and urged investors to actively shift into bonds to take advantage of that trend.

Kim appeared on the Chosun Ilbo YouTube channel "Reporter Kwak's Notebook" in August, where he said the Kospi had "completely lost its upward momentum" and described a break below 5,000 as "the worst-case possibility."

The Kospi did in fact breach the 5,000 level during trading on Friday.

Kim earned the nickname "Korea's Dr. Doom" in 2007, when he served as head of research and executive vice president at Hana Daetoo Securities — now Hana Securities — and correctly predicted the global financial crisis that struck the following year.

He has been warning of a sharp market downturn since July through his YouTube channel and other platforms.