Nike backs Mbappé, Adidas picks Yamal — the boot war raging off the pitch

As 48 nations kick off their battle for soccer supremacy, the competition raging off the pitch has grown just as fierce. Nike and Adidas are locked in an intensifying fight for marketing dominance at the World Cup.

The World Cup is the single most valuable marketing opportunity in the soccer segment of the performance wear market — whoever wins the tournament's commercial battle stands to dominate sales of cleats, jerseys and related gear. Both brands began investing heavily in advertising and promotional campaigns months before the opening whistle.

Market observers say the dynamics are tilting in Nike's favor as the company gradually pulls out of a prolonged slump. According to Launchmetrics, a social media data tracking firm, Nike's "Rip the Script" campaign generated an estimated $31.2 million in media value ahead of this World Cup — roughly double the $17 million attributed to Adidas's "Backyard Legends" campaign.

"Rip the Script" features longtime Nike ambassadors Cristiano Ronaldo and Didier Drogba in cameo roles, with Brazil's Vinícius Júnior and Norway's Erling Haaland in supporting roles. The lead, once Ronaldo's domain, belongs to France's Kylian Mbappé.

Adidas's "Backyard Legends" gives actor Timothée Chalamet a prominent role. Lionel Messi and David Beckham appear in cameos, but the ad centers on a group of rising stars who rally to help Chalamet's team take on a street soccer crew. Spain's Lamine Yamal joins England's Jude Bellingham and US women's soccer player Trinity Rodman as the young talents backing Chalamet.

In the soccer market, signing the right star players is the single biggest driver of sales — and Nike is widely seen as having drawn the luckier hand in the athlete sponsorship race at this World Cup. Mbappé is the consensus favorite to win the Golden Boot. In a pre-tournament poll of 19 soccer journalists conducted by ESPN, he received seven votes for top scorer, more than any other player. Should he claim the award again, he would become the first player in World Cup history to win the Golden Boot in two consecutive tournaments.

Adidas's marquee bet is 18-year-old Lamine Yamal, the young star the brand has groomed as the heir to Messi, and he enters the tournament as the top Golden Ball candidate. Yamal led the expert poll for the MVP award with five votes and was the overwhelming favorite for the Young Player Award with 13 — far ahead of any rival. A recent injury, however, could limit his impact on the pitch.

Nike, under recently appointed CEO Elliott Hill, is widely credited with recovering its marketing edge. Hill said in March that the company would expand soccer market sales over the coming years to drive growth in the performance wear segment. Nike has also pursued collaborations rare in the soccer world — partnering with British skateboard brand Palace and French fashion brand Jacquemus — and broadened its product range into soccer-inspired streetwear.

Adidas is countering by leaning on its traditional strengths: it is the official match ball supplier of the World Cup and has long been regarded as the tournament's dominant marketing force. The company said its soccer-related product sales in the first quarter rose 50 percent year on year, boosted by pre-tournament demand during the April preparation period.

Even so, the prevailing view is that Nike holds a modest edge in this World Cup's marketing battle. Bank of America cited the tournament's home-field advantage for Nike — the competition is being held in the United States — and noted that Yamal's injury creates more room for Mbappé to shine.

Mbappé's France and Yamal's Spain are considered among the leading title contenders alongside Argentina. Who lifts the trophy, who emerges as the tournament's defining star, and which brand reaps the marketing rewards are all questions the coming weeks will answer.