South Korea's round-of-32 odds fall to 67% after Sweden-Japan draw

South Korea's chances of advancing to the round of 32 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup have slipped further, falling to the 67 percent range.

According to football statistics firm Opta, South Korea's probability of reaching the round of 32 stood at 67.93 percent as of 10 a.m. Friday (Korea time). The drop came after Sweden drew 1-1 with Japan in their Group F finale, securing four points and overtaking South Korea in the race for third place.

South Korea's odds have fallen with each round of results. The probability stood at 94 percent immediately after the team's opening win over the Czech Republic, then dropped to 87 percent following back-to-back losses to Mexico and South Africa. It fell further to 73 percent after Ecuador upset Germany 2-1 in Group E, and slid again to 67.93 percent once the Sweden-Japan draw was factored in.

South Korea's chances still remain above 50 percent, however. The team's goal difference stands at minus-1, placing it fifth in the current third-place standings.

US sports outlet The Athletic put the probability of a team with three points advancing to the round of 32 at 70 percent.

Among teams that have yet to complete their third match, Paraguay in Group D and Algeria in Group J share South Korea's point total but have a worse goal difference, at minus-2.

Results involving Cape Verde, Belgium, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Senegal could also prove decisive in determining whether South Korea advances.