Tesla CEO Elon Musk has claimed that SpaceX, the space company he leads, could one day be worth more than everything else on Earth combined — reiterating his vision of expanding humanity's reach to the moon and Mars even as Wall Street remains divided on how to value the company.
According to financial weekly Barron's, Musk wrote on social media platform X, formerly Twitter, on Friday that "if we achieve our goals, SpaceX will be worth more than everything else on Earth combined." Barron's said the remarks came as Wall Street valuations of SpaceX have been multiplying since the company's initial public offering in June.
The comments were widely interpreted as underscoring SpaceX's long-term ambitions beyond rocket launches — encompassing lunar and Martian colonization, satellite internet and a broader space transportation network. Barron's noted that SpaceX's business now extends from rocket development and its Starlink satellite internet service to AI-related ventures.
Musk also laid out his lunar base plans in detail during a recent radio interview. He said he aims to send tens of thousands of people to the moon within the next decade, starting with astronauts within two to three years before gradually scaling up. His long-term goal is to open the moon and Mars to ordinary people who want to go.
"We're going to build a city on the moon that is self-sufficient, like a metropolis," he said, adding that people could move there permanently or visit on vacation. The remarks signal that Musk sees the moon not merely as a destination for exploration but as a place for actual habitation and economic activity.
This is not the first time Musk has made sweeping predictions about his own companies. In 2022, he said Tesla could become more valuable than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined — at the time, the two companies' combined market capitalization stood at roughly $4.4 trillion.
Reality has yet to catch up with those forecasts, however. Tesla's current valuation stands at around $1.8 trillion, well short of the target Musk once set. That gap has led some observers to caution that his latest remarks about SpaceX should be viewed as long-term vision rather than near-term market reality.
Wall Street's assessments of SpaceX vary widely. Morgan Stanley said the share price could fall to $75 in a bear scenario in which Starship fails to reach full operation by 2029, while its bull case calls for $600 per share. The bank set its price target at $300.
Citi offered a more aggressive outlook, putting the share price at $900 and the company's valuation at $12 trillion in its bull scenario. Barron's said Citi gave high marks to SpaceX's potential to lower the cost of reaching orbit through Starship and to build new business models around Starlink and other ventures.
The average analyst price target tracked by financial data firm FactSet stands at $240 per share. Analysts project sales will exceed $630 billion in 2031, with operating profit surpassing $340 billion the same year. Separately from those growth forecasts, Barron's noted that SpaceX may need to raise an additional $150 billion between 2026 and 2031.
Recent share price moves tell a more cautious story. SpaceX shares have fallen 4.5 percent to $145.30, hitting their lowest level since the IPO, according to Barron's. The steep valuation expectations appear to be feeding greater price volatility.
Skeptics are also weighing in. According to Business Insider, Keith Snyder, an analyst at CFRA Research, has a sell rating on SpaceX with a price target of $115. While acknowledging the potential of the Starlink business, he questioned whether the company's earnings track record is strong enough to support its current valuation and growth projections.
Ultimately, the pace at which Starship can be commercialized is seen as the decisive variable. Analysts say SpaceX's sky-high valuation thesis will only gain traction if Starship can dramatically cut the cost of reaching space and enable lunar and Martian transport, satellite launches and the construction of space infrastructure.
kwater@heraldcorp.com
