No daycare nearby — even in Seoul? More than 2,000 centers closed in 6 years

Concerns over childcare gaps are growing as daycare center closures continue in some areas amid population decline. More than 2,000 daycare centers have shut down in Seoul alone over the past five years, signaling that the childcare burden from such gaps is set to worsen not just in rural areas but in major cities as well. Experts say the focus should shift from supply-driven policy to improving actual access to services.

According to a report titled "Decline in Infant and Toddler Population and Childcare Gaps," released Friday by the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs, 2,157 daycare centers — 26 percent of the total — closed in Seoul between 2018 and 2023. In some residential zones, the closure of the only available facility immediately created a childcare gap.

The findings suggest that deteriorating access to childcare services is not confined to rural and fishing communities but could spread to mid-sized cities and urban peripheries.

The report said existing childcare policy has centered on expanding supply and supporting underserved areas, but noted that in an era of population decline, the key question has become whether people can access at least a minimum level of childcare services regardless of where they live.

The report classified all 252 cities, counties and districts nationwide into six types based on changes in the residential area and density of infants and toddlers. In the Greater Seoul area and metropolitan cities, the low-density and gradual-decline types were most prevalent.

The low-density type refers to areas where the residential footprint of young children has not shrunk significantly but density has fallen rapidly. These are predominantly mature or aging residential zones within large cities, where existing infrastructure remains in place but the concentration of infants and toddlers is thinning quickly due to falling births and population outflow.

The gradual-decline type covers areas where the residential footprint is relatively maintained but density is declining steadily. This category mainly includes areas near metropolitan cities and mid-sized hub cities.

In provincial areas, the contracting-hub type and the dual-decline type accounted for the majority.

The contracting-hub type is characterized by a sharp reduction in the residential area of young children, while the density decline in remaining hubs is relatively limited. Outlying and rural townships are emptying out, but small numbers of young children remain in town-center hubs — a structure common in areas experiencing population decline.

The dual-decline type is one in which both the residential area and density of young children are falling simultaneously. It is most common in old city centers, areas behind industrial cities, and urban-rural mixed municipalities. This type carries a relatively high risk of daycare and education center closures and worsening access, as the hub function itself is weakening.

The report stressed that "while the decline in the infant and toddler population is a nationwide phenomenon, its spatial consequences vary by regional type, and policy responses to childcare gaps must therefore differ by region as well."

The report recommended establishing a physical minimum standard to guarantee childcare access — ensuring at least one childcare or education facility is available within a set travel time or distance from where young children live. It also called for developing an accessibility-based vulnerability index to identify residential zones with childcare gaps and using it as a basis for policy and fiscal support.