Odds of US CLARITY Act passing this year fall to 30%

Prospects for the US CLARITY Act — the country's virtual asset market structure legislation — passing this year have dimmed, with the probability of enactment now seen at around 30%.

According to iM Securities Research Center and prediction market platform Kalshi, markets put the odds of the CLARITY Act passing before September at just 3.35%. The probability rises to 16% before October, 24.25% before November, and 30.84% before the end of the year.

Expectations for passage this year are fading. The US Senate's floor session Monday focused on a budget bill (H.R.6500) aimed at preventing a government shutdown, but the CLARITY Act was not placed on the agenda. Analysts say the chances of the bill advancing before the August recess have in effect dropped sharply.

The Senate enters its summer recess Aug. 10 through Sept. 11. Even after floor sessions resume, spending bills and a continuing resolution are likely to take priority ahead of the fiscal year-end in late September. The approaching November midterm elections are also expected to crowd out the CLARITY Act on the legislative calendar.

The legislative process itself presents further hurdles. The bill must clear a cloture vote, amendment review and a final floor vote in the Senate before a House-Senate reconciliation process can begin. Ending a filibuster requires 60 votes, meaning Republican seats alone fall short and Democratic lawmakers' support is essential.

There has been at least some progress on key sticking points. One of the most contentious issues — whether stablecoin issuers should be allowed to pay interest — has moved toward a compromise: rewards tied to simple holding in the form of deposit interest would be prohibited, while rewards linked to actual use such as payments, remittances and transactions would be permitted.

Even if legislation stalls, the SEC has signaled it will press ahead with regulatory work using its existing authority. SEC Chair Paul Atkins recently said that even if the CLARITY Act fails to pass Congress, the agency would continue developing virtual asset market rules within its current powers — covering standards for determining whether assets qualify as securities, exchange regulation and disclosure frameworks.