Scam networks spread to Central Asia, Middle East and Africa as Southeast Asia crackdowns trigger 'secondary balloon effect'

Scam networks evading crackdowns on their traditional bases in Cambodia and other Southeast Asian countries have expanded beyond neighboring states into Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa, authorities said.

The government tracked a Korean scam organization that had been moving its base of operations through Cambodia and Vietnam toward Central Asia, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Thursday, arresting 14 members in Almaty, Kazakhstan, on July 23.

The group set up a call center in Almaty and impersonated government agencies, including the Financial Supervisory Service, defrauding 16 South Korean victims of about 600 million won ($424,000) through a tactic known as "self-confinement," in which victims are psychologically isolated and manipulated.

"This is the first confirmed case of the so-called secondary balloon effect — criminal bases relocating beyond Southeast Asia to third countries," a Foreign Ministry official said. "The significance lies in the fact that we arrested them at an early stage and preemptively blocked the organization's attempt to establish Kazakhstan as a new base."

The secondary balloon effect describes a pattern in which criminal operations first shift from Cambodia to neighboring countries such as Vietnam and Thailand under intensified pressure — the primary balloon effect — then migrate further to more distant third countries as those neighbors also tighten enforcement.

The number of South Koreans arrested in connection with transnational crimes in Southeast Asia has also risen sharply.

According to the Foreign Ministry, 462 South Koreans were arrested on charges of involvement in transnational crimes in the first half of this year, already surpassing the full-year total of 356 recorded last year.

By country, the arrests included 187 in Cambodia, 117 in Vietnam, 70 in Thailand, 50 in Malaysia, 20 in the Philippines and 18 in Laos.

A Foreign Ministry official attributed the sharp rise in arrests to stronger inter-governmental cooperation aimed at curbing the spread of transnational crime, while also calling it evidence of the balloon effect in action.

Transnational criminal organizations are extending their reach beyond Southeast Asia into South Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa.

Scam operations based in Cambodia and Myanmar have recently been observed relocating to Sri Lanka, and East Timor is also emerging as a new criminal hub, according to officials.

After detecting signs of transnational criminal activity in Africa, the Foreign Ministry directed all South Korean diplomatic missions across the continent to monitor related developments and strengthen coordination with local authorities.

In addition, the ministry established a "chief-of-mission group on transnational crime response" in May, enabling relevant missions in China, Southeast Asia and other regions to share intelligence on criminal activity in their host countries more quickly.