Democratic Party leadership candidates launch final push as convention nears

With the Democratic Party of Korea's Aug. 17 national convention entering its final stretch, the three leadership candidates threw themselves into a last-ditch campaign blitz Friday, squeezing in morning commuter greetings and a flurry of media interviews. The push reflects a strategic pivot toward winning over voters in the Seoul-Gyeonggi region — home to the largest share of eligible party members — and performing well in a public opinion poll, after turnout in the traditionally friendly Honam region came in below expectations.

Jung Chung-rae and Kim Min-seok, who have formed a tight two-way race, both expanded their presence in the Seoul-Gyeonggi area Friday. Kim kicked off the day greeting morning commuters at Wangsimni Station in Seoul before heading to Gyeongdong Market in Dongdaemun-gu, the Moran Folk Five-Day Market in Seongnam, Motgol Market in Suwon, and a walking canvass through Haenggung-dong. Jung visited Moran Market in Seongnam and volunteered at heat-relief and meal-service events in Gwangjin-gu and Yongsan-gu. Song Young-gil, meanwhile, focused his campaigning on South Jeolla Province, visiting Wando, Gangjin, Jangheung and Boseong-gun. Song, whose hometown is Jangheung in South Jeolla Province, is the only candidate from the Honam region.

The candidates have also been aggressive on the media front. Jung sat for five interviews this week, Kim for eight and Song for 17. The heavy investment in broadcast and print appearances appears driven by the calculation that an "air war" is the most effective strategy, given that more than 70 percent of eligible party-member votes are concentrated in this phase of the regional primary. The Honam regional results are due Saturday, the Seoul-Gyeonggi results on Sunday, and delegate votes combined with the public polling outcome on Monday.

The public opinion poll running over Friday and Saturday has emerged as a potential late swing factor. All three camps share the view that Jung will outperform Kim in that survey. Across multiple polls, Jung has led among the general public while Kim has shown stronger numbers among Democratic Party members, party supporters and independents. The Kim and Song camps have also sought to highlight that Jung draws relatively high support from People Power Party and Rebuilding Korea Party backers.

Kim currently leads Jung by just 1.48 percentage points — a margin of 3,086 votes. Jung's camp is banking on narrowing that gap in the remaining Honam and Seoul-Gyeonggi party-member rounds before attempting an overturn in the public poll. Kim's camp believes it can lock up the race in the party-member voting early enough to dilute whatever margin Jung gains in the public survey.

The final convention result will be calculated by combining party-member and delegate votes, which account for 70 percent of the total, with the public opinion poll, which accounts for the remaining 30 percent. The poll uses a random-digit dialing method and targets Democratic Party supporters and independents, excluding registered party members. Some within the party have raised concerns that the public poll — with its relatively small sample compared with the roughly 1.55 million eligible party members casting ballots — could end up being overweighted in the final tally.