Bitcoin may pull back by year-end, prediction markets suggest

Bitcoin has surged more than 20 percent over the past week, climbing to the $77,000 range, but prediction markets are pricing in a year-end level of around $75,000.

According to CNBC, the average value derived from year-end Bitcoin price contracts traded on the US prediction market platform Kalshi stands at approximately $75,000.

As of 2 p.m. Saturday, Bitcoin was trading near $78,000 — about $3,000 above what prediction market participants expect by year-end. The gap suggests traders lean toward the view that the recent rally will not fully hold through December.

On Kalshi, contracts are traded on what price range Bitcoin will occupy at midnight on Jan. 1. Participants predict the price by choosing "yes" or "no" for each $5,000 price band.

Bitcoin's sharp climb in recent weeks has been driven in part by a revival in investor sentiment after President Donald Trump pushed for congressional passage of the Clarity Act.

The US Treasury's decision to at least double the size of its long-term government bond buyback program also bolstered the rally by raising expectations for market liquidity.

Prediction markets are not guaranteed indicators of actual asset price movements. They serve as a reference for gauging investor sentiment, reflecting in real time the probabilities that market participants assign to specific price levels.